Few places offer a better window into America’s midterm elections(中期选举) than Toledo, Ohio. The modest industrial city, whose suburbs spill across the Michigan border, sits between two competitive Senate races.(这座不起眼的工业城市郊区延伸至密歇根州边界，夹在两场竞争激烈的参议院选战之间。) It is also at the heart of Ohio’s ninth congressional district, which might change hands(易主、转手). In a bar on the city’s edge Jake Linneburg, a 25-year-old building contractor(承包商), says he voted for Donald Trump in 2024 because he liked the president’s America First(美国优先) message. So did many of his friends. But the war with Iran has changed his mind. He now accuses Mr Trump of spending billions overseas.
要观察美国中期选举，很少有地方比俄亥俄州托莱多更合适。这座不起眼的工业城市郊区延伸至密歇根州边界，夹在两场竞争激烈的参议院选战之间。它也是俄亥俄州第九国会选区的核心地带，该选区可能易主。在城市边缘的一家酒吧里，25岁的建筑承包商杰克·林内伯格说，他在2024年投票给唐纳德·特朗普，是因为喜欢总统的“美国优先”主张。他的许多朋友也是如此。但与伊朗的战争改变了他的想法。他现在指责特朗普在海外花费数十亿美元。
Mr Linneburg is one of the millions of Americans who will decide control of Congress and the trajectory(轨迹、走向) of Mr Trump’s presidency on November 3rd. To forecast how the election will play out(展开、发展), The Economist has reconstructed America’s electorate(全体选民). Our analysis is based on statistical modelling(统计建模) of 58,000 responses to opinion polls conducted by YouGov since the beginning of 2026. We created a database of 22m profiles, each representing a type of voter defined by demographics(人口统计特征) and voting history. The data show how Mr Trump’s fracturing(分裂中的) coalition could hand Congress to the Democrats(把国会拱手让给民主党).
林内伯格先生是数百万将在11月3日决定国会控制权和特朗普总统任期走向的美国人之一。为了预测选举将如何展开，《经济学人》重建了美国选民结构。我们的分析基于对YouGov自2026年初以来收集的5.8万份民调回复的统计建模。我们创建了一个包含2200万份画像的数据库，每份画像代表一种由人口统计特征和投票历史定义的选民类型。数据显示，特朗普正在分裂的联盟可能将国会拱手让给民主党。
These dots represent tens of thousands of American voters. They are not real people, but together they are representative(有代表性的) of America’s population.
这些圆点代表数万名美国选民。他们不是真实的人，但合在一起却能代表美国人口。
The limits of discontent
不满的限度