THE WAR in the Middle East was worsening. Oil and gas prices were soaring. Asian countries were shortening work weeks and rationing(配给；定量供应) fuel consumption. Yet in those difficult three months to the end of June, India’s economy grew by 7.8% year on year, blowing past(远超；轻松超越) analysts’ and the central bank’s own expectations. “Doomsayers(唱衰者；末日预言者) were doomed and India bloomed…yet again!” Narendra Modi gloated(得意洋洋；幸灾乐祸) on social media.
中东战事不断升级，油气价格飞涨，亚洲各国纷纷缩短工时、实行燃料配给。然而，在截至6月底的那个艰难的三个月里，印度经济却同比增长了7.8%，远超分析师和央行自身的预期。“唱衰者又一次被现实打脸，印度再度绽放！”纳伦德拉·莫迪在社交媒体上得意洋洋地写道。
Well. The doomsayers have been having a pretty decent run(过得相当不错；势头不错), actually. Chief among them is Subhash Chandra Garg, a retired bureaucrat who went on television and accused the government of goosing(注水；人为抬高) its numbers. He made the case(提出论点；论证) that downward revisions(修正；修订) in last year’s figures artificially boosted growth this year. Strip out(剔除；去掉) the revisions, he said, and the economy grew by just 2.6% before accounting for inflation, and in real terms(按实际值计算；扣除通胀后) may not have grown at all.
嗯，其实唱衰者们的日子过得还不错。其中最主要的是退休官员苏巴什·钱德拉·加格，他上电视指责政府注水数据。他提出，去年数据被下修，人为抬高了今年的增速。他说，剔除这些修正，印度经济在扣除通胀前仅增长2.6%，按实际值计算可能根本没有增长。
The argument is easy to follow but wrong-headed(方向错误的；固执错误的). India overhauled(全面改革；彻底修订) its GDP workings earlier this year. The numbers Mr Garg is comparing were calculated differently, making them not comparable. Moreover, other indicators such as rising car sales, credit growth and power consumption all point to genuine growth. Yet it is the government that is on the back foot(处于被动；处于劣势). Mr Garg has spurred(引发；刺激) a debate on the credibility(可信度；公信力) of India’s statistics. Pundits have spent weeks discussing the plausibility(合理性；可信性) of the GDP numbers. A visibly annoyed Mr Modi, 75, has taken to complaining in public about “angry uncles(愤怒大叔；指爱批评的中老年男性)” who spread negativity.
这个论点容易理解，但方向错了。印度今年早些时候对GDP核算方法进行了全面改革。加格所比较的数字是用不同方法计算出来的，因此不具可比性。此外，汽车销量上升、信贷增长、电力消耗等其他指标都指向真实增长。然而，政府却处于被动。加格引发了关于印度统计数据可信度的辩论。专家们花了数周讨论GDP数字的合理性。明显恼火的75岁的莫迪开始在公开场合抱怨那些散布负能量的“愤怒大叔”。