THIS YEAR was supposed to be miserable for oil companies. When it began, the price of Brent crude futures, the international benchmark(基准), was forecast to fall below $60 a barrel, down from $68 in 2025 and $80 in 2024, amid a “super glut(供应过剩)” in supply. Instead Donald Trump’s war in the Gulf has propelled it into triple digits(三位数). Many analysts now expect it to average $85 or more in 2026; some anticipate the price reaching $120 a barrel if shipping attacks in the Strait of Hormuz(霍尔木兹海峡) continue.
今年本应是石油公司惨淡的一年。年初时，由于供应严重过剩，国际基准布伦特原油期货价格预计将跌破每桶60美元，低于2025年的68美元和2024年的80美元。然而，唐纳德·特朗普在海湾发动的战争却将油价推升至三位数。许多分析师现在预计，2026年油价将平均达到85美元甚至更高；一些人预测，如果霍尔木兹海峡的航运袭击持续，油价可能触及每桶120美元。
In recent days events to the west—advances by the Iranian-backed Houthis(胡塞武装) in Yemen, and Saudi Arabia’s closure of its East-West pipeline(输油管道), an alternative route to Hormuz for its oil, after a drone attack—have kept it around $105. “Dated” Brent, for delivery in a few weeks, which is usually within a few dollars of the futures price, jumped to $132 on September 15th, according to Platts(普氏能源资讯), a price-reporting agency. (It recede(回落)d to $126 the next day.)
近几天，西边的事态——伊朗支持的也门胡塞武装取得进展，以及沙特阿拉伯在无人机袭击后关闭其东西向输油管道（这是其石油绕过霍尔木兹海峡的替代路线）——使油价维持在每桶105美元左右。据价格报告机构普氏能源资讯的数据，通常与期货价格相差几美元的“即期”布伦特原油（几周内交割）在9月15日跃升至132美元。（次日回落至126美元。）
The price surprise has proved a boon(福音、恩惠) to the industry. Shares in oil-and-gas businesses worldwide have risen by an aggregate(总计的) 40% since the start of the year, compared with 12% for listed companies as a whole (see chart 1). The combined profits of the West’s seven biggest integrated oil companies(综合石油公司) plus Aramco(沙特阿美), Saudi Arabia’s state-owned colossus(巨头), hit $91bn in the second quarter of 2026, twice their level a year earlier.
油价的意外飙升对石油行业来说是一大福音。自年初以来，全球油气企业的股价累计上涨了40%，而所有上市公司整体仅上涨12%（见图表1）。2026年第二季度，西方七大综合石油公司加上沙特国有巨头阿美石油的利润合计达到910亿美元，是去年同期水平的两倍。
