One presidential hopeful(有望成功的人；候选人) don(穿上；戴上)ned an apron and served frites(薯条（法语借词）) from a food truck. Another put on a harness(戴上安全绳/安全带) and climbed to the top of a wind turbine. Yet another launched a “1,000 bistros” listening tour. Gimmicky showmanship(表演才能；作秀本领) means that presidential-election season is under way. At a two-round vote next April and May the French will elect a successor to Emmanuel Macron, who cannot stand for a third consecutive term.(明年四五月将举行两轮投票，法国人将选出埃马纽埃尔·马克龙的继任者——马克龙已无法再连任第三个任期。) Polls consistently favour Marine Le Pen of the populist-right National Rally (RN)(法国国民联盟，极右翼民粹政党), who launched her campaign on September 13th. With seven months to go, therefore, the presidential race has turned into a single question: who can beat Ms Le Pen?
一位总统候选人系上围裙，在流动餐车上卖薯条。另一位戴上安全绳，爬上了一台风力发电机的顶端。还有一位发起了“1000家小酒馆”倾听之旅。这些花哨的作秀意味着总统大选季已经拉开帷幕。明年四五月将举行两轮投票，法国人将选出埃马纽埃尔·马克龙的继任者——马克龙已无法再连任第三个任期。民调始终青睐民粹右翼政党国民联盟（RN）的玛丽娜·勒庞，她已于9月13日启动竞选。因此，距离大选还有七个月，这场总统角逐已归结为一个问题：谁能击败勒庞？
The RN leader, on her fourth presidential bid(竞选；努力争取), has a commanding lead(压倒性领先优势). Five new polls give her 32-36% in the first round—at least 13 points ahead of her nearest rival(对手；竞争者), Edouard Philippe(法国前总理，中间派潜在候选人), one of Mr Macron’s former prime ministers. In each of three run-off(决选；第二轮投票) scenarios Ms Le Pen wins. In one she beats Mr Philippe by 55% to 45%.
这位国民联盟领袖已是第四次竞选总统，目前优势明显。五项新民调显示，她在首轮投票中支持率为32%至36%，至少领先最接近的对手、马克龙前总理之一爱德华·菲利普13个百分点。在三组决选情景中，勒庞均获胜。其中一组情景中，她以55%对45%击败菲利普。
French poll(民调；得票率)s this far ahead(提前这么久；距离大选这么远) have often been wrong. Mr Macron was mentioned in only a few at this point before his election in 2017. Some past favourite(热门人选；最被看好者)s (Edouard Balladur in 1994, Alain Juppé in 2016) subsequently crashed out. In over three years, Ms Le Pen has only once polled at below 30% in the first round. “The real difference between this election and previous ones is that it is possible this time for her to win,” says Clément Beaune, a former minister from Renaissance, Mr Macron’s party.(“这次选举与以往选举的真正区别在于，她这次有可能获胜，”马克龙所属政党复兴党的前部长克莱芒·博纳说。) “Her defeat or victory depends heavily on us.”
距离大选这么远的民调常常出错。2017年当选前，马克龙在此时仅被少数民调提及。一些昔日的热门人选（1994年的爱德华·巴拉迪尔、2016年的阿兰·朱佩）后来都黯然出局。三年多来，勒庞在首轮民调中仅有一次低于30%。“这次选举与以往选举的真正区别在于，她这次有可能获胜，”马克龙所属政党复兴党的前部长克莱芒·博纳说，“她的失败或胜利，很大程度上取决于我们。”
