Theodore Roosevelt’s injunction(训诫，告诫) to speak softly and carry a big stick(罗斯福的“大棒政策”名言) has rarely felt more apt(恰当的，贴切的). In mid-August Scott Bessent, America’s treasury secretary, announced with great bluster(虚张声势，大放厥词) that he would beef up(加强，充实) his department’s scheduled buy-backs of its long-dated debt. On September 9th the Treasury offered to repurchase up to $6bn-worth of its bonds; on September 24th, and near-weekly thereafter, it plans to buy back tranche(（债券等的）批次，份额)s worth up to a maximum amount “= or > $4bn”. Mr Bessent says he aims to “push things back towards equilibrium(把局面推回均衡状态)”—meaning to lower his government’s borrowing costs.
西奥多·罗斯福那句“说话温和，手持大棒”的训诫，很少像现在这样贴切。八月中旬，美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特大张旗鼓地宣布，将加大财政部对长期债务的定期回购力度。9月9日，财政部提出回购最多60亿美元的国债；9月24日以及此后几乎每周，它都计划回购价值最高“等于或大于40亿美元”的债券批次。贝森特表示，他的目标是“把局面推回均衡状态”——也就是降低政府的借贷成本。
For that he would need a much bigger stick. Since Mr Bessent’s mid-August announcement the yield(收益率) on ten-year Treasury bonds has jumped from 4.65% to over 5%, the highest since 2007. And no wonder(难怪，不足为奇) considering Mr Bessent’s twiglike(树枝般细小的) intervention. America’s gross(总的，毛的) government debt is $40trn, about 10,000 times the size of each buy-back. It is a bit like going to a bank that has lent you $1m, slapping a couple of $100 bills on the counter, eyeballing the clerk and demanding a lower rate.(这有点像你去一家借给你100万美元的银行，往柜台上拍两张100美元钞票，盯着柜员，要求降低利率。)
要做到这一点，他需要一根大得多的棒子。自贝森特八月中旬宣布计划以来，十年期美国国债收益率已从4.65%跃升至5%以上，创2007年以来新高。考虑到贝森特那根树枝般细小的干预，这也不足为奇。美国政府的债务总额高达40万亿美元，约为每次回购规模的1万倍。这有点像你去一家借给你100万美元的银行，往柜台上拍两张100美元钞票，盯着柜员，要求降低利率。
The intervention is not just failing on its own terms(就其自身标准而言): it also relies on a diagnosis(诊断，判断) that is plain wrong. The bond market, in Mr Bessent’s telling, is suffering from a “fever” stoked by speculators, pushing America’s borrowing cost above its rightful equilibrium level.(按照贝森特的说法，债券市场正因投机者煽起的“高烧”而受苦，把美国的借贷成本推高到超过其应有的均衡水平。) In other words, trading has become dysfunctional(失灵的，功能失调的) and bondholders are not pricing Treasuries according to their fundamentals(基本面). In fact, the bond market is working precisely as it should.
这项干预不仅在自身目标上失败，还建立在完全错误的诊断之上。按照贝森特的说法，债券市场正因投机者煽起的“高烧”而受苦，把美国的借贷成本推高到超过其应有的均衡水平。换句话说，交易已经失灵，债券持有人没有根据基本面为国债定价。事实上，债券市场恰恰在按它应有的方式运转。