Finance does not offer many sure bets(稳赚不赔的买卖). One, for the past few decades, has been that most rich-world sovereign bonds(主权债券) are safe. Those lending cash to all but the diciest governments could feel confident they would get it back, plus interest at a rate set by a free market, and without the principal being inflated away.(除了那些风险最高的政府，借钱给其他政府的人都可以放心，他们不仅能收回本金，还能按自由市场决定的利率获得利息，而且本金不会被通胀侵蚀。) Bonds also helpfully offset(抵消) the volatility(波动性) of stocks by gaining value during recessions. Today, as public debts mount, all that is under threat.
金融领域没有多少稳赚不赔的买卖。过去几十年里，有一个几乎板上钉钉：大多数发达国家的国债是安全的。除了那些风险最高的政府，借钱给其他政府的人都可以放心，他们不仅能收回本金，还能按自由市场决定的利率获得利息，而且本金不会被通胀侵蚀。债券还有一个好处：在经济衰退时升值，从而抵消股票的波动。如今，随着公共债务不断攀升，这一切都受到了威胁。
Since 2000 net government debt(净政府债务) in America and Britain has tripled(增长了两倍) as a share of GDP(占GDP的比重). In France and Japan, it has doubled. The pile keeps growing: seldom outside wartime or recessions have rich-world deficits been higher than they are today.(除了战争或衰退时期，发达国家的赤字从未像今天这样高。)
自2000年以来，美国和英国的净政府债务占GDP的比重已增长了两倍。法国和日本则翻了一番。债务规模还在不断扩大：除了战争或衰退时期，发达国家的赤字从未像今天这样高。
In the 2010s, when borrowing was cheap, even big debts looked manageable. Today, yields(收益率) are high and rising fast, most recently in response to the expectation that the war in Iran will force up(推高) interest rates. Sure enough on September 16th the Federal Reserve(美联储，美国中央银行) raised rates, becoming the fifth major rich-world central bank to do so this year. In expectation of monetary tightening to come, the ten-year Treasury yield has exceeded 5%, a threshold last crossed for any length of time two decades ago.(由于预期货币紧缩即将到来，十年期美国国债收益率已超过5%，这是二十年来首次长时间突破这一门槛。) The spreads(利差) on French bonds are not far off their levels during the European sovereign-debt crisis(欧洲主权债务危机). After lying dormant(沉寂、蛰伏) for decades, yields are surging even in Japan. And the less said about Britain’s gilts(英国国债), the better.
在2010年代，借贷成本低廉，即使是大笔债务看起来也可控。如今，收益率高企且快速上升，最近一次上升是因为市场预期伊朗战争将推高利率。果然，9月16日美联储加息，成为今年第五个加息的发达国家主要央行。由于预期货币紧缩即将到来，十年期美国国债收益率已超过5%，这是二十年来首次长时间突破这一门槛。法国国债利差已接近欧洲主权债务危机时期的水平。在沉寂数十年后，连日本的收益率也在飙升。至于英国国债，还是少说为妙。
The r-word
那个以R开头的词