HOW FAST fortunes(命运，时运) can shift in war. Only a few months ago Russia seemed stuck. It was unable to advance on the front line despite suffering over 1,000 casualties a day, even as Ukrainian strikes deep within enemy territory were piling pressure on(不断施压) Vladimir Putin. In recent weeks, however, the dynamic has changed. Russia is exploiting new technology and extra production to hit Ukrainian cities with savage(野蛮的，凶猛的) ferocity in a bid to(为了，企图) make life there unbearable. Ukraine is not about to collapse—its front line remains strong—but European allies need to redouble(加倍，加强) their support. In this war they are glimpsing(瞥见，窥见) the future, and Ukraine is where their defence must begin.
战争中命运的变化何其迅速。仅仅几个月前，俄罗斯似乎还陷入僵局。尽管每天伤亡超过1000人，它却无法在前线推进，而乌克兰对敌方纵深的打击正不断向弗拉基米尔·普京施压。然而最近几周，形势发生了变化。俄罗斯正利用新技术和额外产能，以野蛮的凶猛袭击乌克兰城市，企图让那里的生活变得无法忍受。乌克兰不会崩溃——其前线依然稳固——但欧洲盟友需要加倍支持。在这场战争中，他们窥见了未来，而乌克兰正是他们防御的起点。
As we set out(阐述，陈述) in our reporting, Russia has sharply intensified(加强，加剧) its air war against Ukraine’s cities, border crossings and infrastructure far from the front. This is made possible by new technology, including a switch from propeller- to jet-powered Shahed drones which will need interceptor missiles to counter them.(这得益于新技术，包括从螺旋桨驱动的“沙赫德”无人机转向喷气动力无人机，后者需要拦截导弹才能应对。) Using a “mesh(网状网络)” network of radio relays between drones, Russia can hunt moving targets such as railways, not just home in blindly on set co-ordinates. It is also building its own version of the American Starlink(星链卫星系统) satellite system, which threatens to give it a big advantage in deep strikes in 2027.
正如我们在报道中所述，俄罗斯已大幅加强对乌克兰城市、边境口岸和远离前线的基础设施的空中打击。这得益于新技术，包括从螺旋桨驱动的“沙赫德”无人机转向喷气动力无人机，后者需要拦截导弹才能应对。通过无人机之间的无线电中继“网状”网络，俄罗斯能够追踪铁路等移动目标，而不再只是盲目地飞向预设坐标。它还在建造美国“星链”卫星系统的自家版本，这可能在2027年为其纵深打击带来巨大优势。
Russia’s second strength is volume(数量，产量). Its production target for jet-Shaheds this year is said to be 24,000. By one estimate, it can launch over a hundred of its ballistic(弹道的) missiles each month. Given that Ukraine and its allies are critically short of air defences, including Patriot interceptors, that is a grave problem.(鉴于乌克兰及其盟友极度缺乏防空系统，包括“爱国者”拦截弹，这是一个严重的问题。)
俄罗斯的第二个优势是数量。据称其今年喷气式“沙赫德”无人机的生产目标是24000架。据一项估计，它每月能发射超过100枚弹道导弹。鉴于乌克兰及其盟友极度缺乏防空系统，包括“爱国者”拦截弹，这是一个严重的问题。