On September 5th yet another domain(领域) of human intelligence fell to(被……攻陷；落入……之手) the artificial variety. For the first time an AI won the seasonal Metaculus Cup, a proving ground(试验场；试炼场) for forecasters of a wide variety of events. Not only that, other AIs took the second and fifth places, leaving third and fourth for humans.(不仅如此，其他AI还拿下了第二和第五名，把第三、第四名留给了人类。)
9月5日，人类智能的又一个领域被人工智能攻陷。AI首次赢得了赛季性的Metaculus杯——这是各类事件预测者的试炼场。不仅如此，其他AI还拿下了第二和第五名，把第三、第四名留给了人类。
Hundreds of entrant(参赛者)s had predicted the outcomes of questions that would be resolved by September. Would an American state or EU country restrict data-centre development? Would the hantavirus(汉坦病毒) outbreak affect at least five people who were not passengers on MV Hondius(洪迪乌斯号邮轮)? How much would Brent crude(布伦特原油) cost? The participants were scored on the distance of their prediction from the true answer.(参赛者的得分取决于其预测值与真实答案的差距。) Those that were closest for longest(最接近且维持时间最长) won the greatest number of points.
数百名参赛者预测了将在9月前揭晓结果的问题。美国某个州或欧盟某个国家会限制数据中心的发展吗？汉坦病毒疫情会波及至少五名非“洪迪乌斯号”乘客的人吗？布伦特原油价格会是多少？参赛者的得分取决于其预测值与真实答案的差距。预测最接近且维持时间最长的人得分最高。
The human participants in the competition shared a $5,000 cash prize in proportion to(与……成比例) the number of points that they picked up. But this sum is actually less than the fifth-placer(第五名) had achieved in the real world. By betting on questions on which its AI thinks the market is wrong, FutureSearch has seen a 6% increase since June on the initial $100,000 value of its portfolio(投资组合) on Kalshi(美国预测市场平台), a popular prediction market. Even that, though, is chump change compared with the performance of one of the developers behind Preseen who, despite his firm failing to make the top five in the competition, had turned $35 into $1.94m over seven months, the sixth-best return in Kalshi’s history.(然而，与Preseen背后一位开发者的业绩相比，这不过是小钱：尽管他的公司未能进入竞赛前五，他本人在七个月内把35美元变成了194万美元，创下Kalshi历史上第六高的回报率。)
竞赛中的人类参赛者按得分比例瓜分了5000美元现金奖。但这笔钱其实还不及第五名在现实世界中赚到的多。FutureSearch押注于其AI认为市场定价有误的问题，自6月以来，其在热门预测市场Kalshi上初始价值10万美元的投资组合已增值6%。然而，与Preseen背后一位开发者的业绩相比，这不过是小钱：尽管他的公司未能进入竞赛前五，他本人在七个月内把35美元变成了194万美元，创下Kalshi历史上第六高的回报率。
The soothsayer’s smile
预言者的微笑
The future of the future
未来的未来
