In the age of Donald Trump, beware of sure things(当心板上钉钉的事). Democrats are favourites(热门（获胜者）) to take back the House of Representatives(夺回众议院) on November 3rd. Opposition parties have historically done well in midterms(中期选举), and Mr Trump’s unpopularity, persistent inflation and the Iran war have created a particularly poisonous(极为不利的) environment for Republicans. The Economist’s election forecast model rates Democrats’ chances at 92%, and prediction markets(预测市场) are nearly as confident.
在唐纳德·特朗普的时代，要当心那些看似板上钉钉的事。民主党是11月3日夺回众议院的热门。反对党在中期选举中历来表现不俗，而特朗普的不受欢迎、持续的通胀以及伊朗战争，为共和党营造了格外不利的环境。《经济学人》的选举预测模型认为民主党的胜算为92%，预测市场也几乎同样笃定。
Yet events predicted to occur only one time out of ten do nonetheless occur, and Mr Trump and his MAGA faithful have outperformed polls often enough since 2016 to give pause.(然而，预测只有十分之一概率发生的事，终究还是会发生；而且自2016年以来，特朗普及其MAGA忠实拥趸已多次超出民调预期，足以让人三思。) By what path could Republicans defy the odds(逆势而上) and hold the House?
然而，预测只有十分之一概率发生的事，终究还是会发生；而且自2016年以来，特朗普及其MAGA忠实拥趸已多次超出民调预期，足以让人三思。共和党究竟可能通过什么路径逆势而上，守住众议院呢？
All 435 districts(选区) are up for re-election(面临改选), with Democrats needing a net gain(净增) of just three seats to win the chamber. But a burst of gerrymandering(不公正的选区划分) has made that harder. Conventionally, states redraw their districts once a decade, after a census(人口普查), but Mr Trump urged Republican-led states to gerrymander ahead of the midterms.
全部435个选区都将改选，民主党只需净增三个席位就能赢得众议院。但一波选区重划让这变得更难。传统上，各州每十年在人口普查后重新划分选区，但特朗普敦促共和党主政的州在中期选举前提前进行不公正的选区划分。