FRIEDRICH MERZ is breaking a string of(打破一连串) unfortunate records. He is the least-liked German chancellor in polling history. His Christian Democrats and their Bavarian sister party (CDU/CSU), too, are skirting(徘徊于、接近) all-time polling lows. And on September 20th, in an election in the state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern(德国东北部的一个州), the CDU was ejected(被逐出) from a state parliament for the first time ever, drawing below 5% of the vote.
弗里德里希·默茨正在打破一连串不光彩的纪录。他是德国民调史上最不受欢迎的总理。他领导的基民盟及其巴伐利亚姊妹党（基民盟/基社盟）也正徘徊在历史最低民调水平。9月20日，在梅克伦堡-前波莫瑞州的选举中，基民盟首次被逐出州议会，得票率跌破5%。
For many in the chancellor’s party, this last debacle(惨败、崩溃), following a CDU wipeout(彻底击溃) at the hands of(被……击败/由……造成) the populist-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt earlier this month, has marked the point of no return(不可挽回的临界点). CDU campaigners in Berlin, which also voted on September 20th, report that locals only wanted to talk about their loathing(厌恶、憎恨) for Mr Merz—who was not on the ballot. The stench of death surrounds his chancellorship. Yet although everybody can see the trapdoor beneath Mr Merz’s feet, no one is ready to spring the lever.(然而，尽管人人都能看到默茨脚下的活板门，却没有人准备按下机关。)
对总理所属政党的许多人来说，继本月早些时候基民盟在东部萨克森-安哈尔特州被右翼民粹主义政党德国选择党（AfD）彻底击溃之后，这最近一场惨败标志着不可挽回的临界点。柏林也在9月20日举行了选举，当地的基民盟竞选人员报告说，选民只想谈论他们对默茨的厌恶——而默茨根本不在选票上。死亡的气息笼罩着他的总理任期。然而，尽管人人都能看到默茨脚下的活板门，却没有人准备按下机关。
In part that is because, if he goes, the scenarios look still worse. The governing parties do not want to precipitate(促成、加速（坏事）) fresh elections that would probably be won by the AfD. For the CDU/CSU to boot out(踢出、赶走) the Social Democrats (SPD), the junior coalition partner, and rule as a minority government—a scenario reportedly considered in Mr Merz’s office—would leave them hostage(人质、受制于人) to the AfD in parliament. And switching the man at the top might look more tempting if the likeliest alternative, Hendrik Wüst, the CDU premier of North-Rhine Westphalia, Germany’s biggest state, were not facing a re-election bid next April.(而换掉最高领导人这件事，如果不是因为最有可能的替代者、德国最大州北莱茵-威斯特法伦州的基民盟州长亨德里克·维斯特明年四月面临连任竞选，或许会显得更诱人。) In any case, the institutional barriers to such a Kanzlertausch(德语，意为"总理更替") make it risky. “If you pop your head out at this stage, someone will chop it off,” says Wigan Salazar, a CDU member and head of MSL, a political consultancy.
部分原因在于，如果他下台，局面看起来会更糟。执政党不想提前举行大选，因为那很可能让德国选择党获胜。如果基民盟/基社盟把初级联盟伙伴社民党（SPD）踢出政府，以少数派政府执政——据报道默茨办公室曾考虑过这一方案——那他们在议会中将受制于德国选择党。而换掉最高领导人这件事，如果不是因为最有可能的替代者、德国最大州北莱茵-威斯特法伦州的基民盟州长亨德里克·维斯特明年四月面临连任竞选，或许会显得更诱人。无论如何，这种"总理更替"的制度障碍使其风险重重。"如果你在这个阶段冒头，就会有人把你的头砍掉，"基民盟成员、政治咨询公司MSL负责人维甘·萨拉萨尔说。