RISING BOND yields imperil(危及，使陷于危险) government finances. They will also change the housing market. The interest rate on most American mortgages, after all(毕竟，终究), closely track(跟随，与……同步变动)s the ten-year yield on Treasuries, now around 5% and the highest in two decades; German mortgage lenders price off long-term bunds; and so on in other rich economies. If interest rates remain high, let alone rise further, a confluence(汇合，多重因素的交汇) of factors could spell(意味着，招致（某种结果）) a long period of weakness for house prices.
债券收益率上升会危及政府财政，也会改变楼市。毕竟，美国大多数房贷利率都紧紧跟随十年期国债收益率——目前约为5%，为二十年来最高；德国房贷机构则以长期国债为定价基准；其他富裕经济体也大同小异。如果利率维持高位，更不用说继续上行，多重因素叠加可能意味着房价将长期疲软。
After the last jump in borrowing costs, in 2022-23, the global housing market emerged remarkably unscathed(未受损伤的，安然无恙的) (see chart, top panel). Even adjusting for(考虑到，剔除……因素后) the inflation of recent years, rich-world house prices are only 4% off their all-time high. True, a few markets have wobble(动摇，摇晃不稳)d. In New Zealand, where the housing market entirely detached from economic fundamentals during the covid-19 pandemic, real home values have fallen by 25% from their peak.(在新西兰，楼市在新冠疫情期间完全脱离了经济基本面，实际房价已较峰值下跌25%。) Germany’s housing market, usually boringly stable, has also slump(暴跌，大幅下滑)ed.
2022至2023年借贷成本上一轮飙升之后，全球楼市竟安然无恙（见图表上半部分）。即便剔除近年通胀因素，富裕国家的房价也仅比历史高点低4%。诚然，少数市场出现了动摇。在新西兰，楼市在新冠疫情期间完全脱离了经济基本面，实际房价已较峰值下跌25%。一向稳定得有些乏味的德国楼市也大幅下挫。
But many other places are seeing a housing boom of sorts(某种的，勉强算的). Australia’s real house prices are slightly above their pandemic peak. In the fanciest parts of San Francisco, the neighbourhoods where Sam (Altman), Jensen (Huang) and other AI mogul(大亨，巨头)s known mainly by their first name have homes, house prices are up by 20% over the past year. Some markets are even healthier (for owners) or more unaffordable (for buyers). Someone who had the foresight to buy a house in Portugal during the dark days of the euro-zone debt crisis in 2013 would now be sitting on an asset worth nearly 200% more in real terms.(谁要是2013年欧元区债务危机最黑暗的日子里预见到先机，在葡萄牙买了房，如今这笔资产的实际价值已上涨近200%。)
但其他许多地方却出现了某种楼市繁荣。澳大利亚实际房价略高于疫情高峰期。在旧金山最时髦的街区——萨姆（奥特曼）、黄仁勋等主要靠名字就能认出的AI大佬们置业的地方——房价过去一年上涨了20%。有些市场甚至更健康（对业主而言），或者说更让人买不起（对买家而言）。谁要是2013年欧元区债务危机最黑暗的日子里预见到先机，在葡萄牙买了房，如今这笔资产的实际价值已上涨近200%。
