MORE THAN ever, the big questions about artificial intelligence drive the ups and downs(左右涨跌) of financial markets. The bulls, who think AI will be both transformative and lucrative, stand against the sceptics, who believe the promised returns will never arrive.(看多者认为AI将带来变革与丰厚利润，怀疑者则认为承诺的回报永远不会兑现，两派针锋相对。)
关于人工智能的重大问题，比以往任何时候都更能左右金融市场的涨跌。看多者认为AI将带来变革与丰厚利润，怀疑者则认为承诺的回报永远不会兑现，两派针锋相对。
But a third sentiment is now coming to the fore(占据上风) for investors: what if AI systems are immensely capable, as the bulls predict, but deeply dangerous? Fears about “misaligned(跑偏的)” AI that hacks other systems, enables fraud or misleads human engineers are growing. Researchers in frontier AI labs worry that their tools could help rogue states(流氓国家) or terrorist groups build their own bioweapons(生物武器). Some think the models could result in human extinction, which would take the shine off(使黯然失色) any future listing. It’s hard to celebrate an initial public offering that leads to a terminal public offing.(一场最终导致公众集体送命的首次公开募股，实在没什么好庆祝的。)
但如今，第三种情绪正在投资者中占据上风：如果AI系统真如看多者预测的那样能力超群，却又极度危险，那该怎么办？对“跑偏”AI的恐惧正在加剧——这类AI会入侵其他系统、助长欺诈，或误导人类工程师。前沿AI实验室的研究人员担心，他们的工具可能帮助流氓国家或恐怖组织制造自己的生物武器。还有人认为，这些模型可能导致人类灭绝——那会让任何未来的上市都黯然失色。一场最终导致公众集体送命的首次公开募股，实在没什么好庆祝的。
Tyler Cowen, an economist, wishes the alarmists(危言耸听者) would put their money where their mouth is(用钱投票). Many place high odds on a catastrophe. If they are right, then intimations(征兆、暗示) of doom should start affecting the markets before the cataclysm(大灾难) actually arrives. The technophobes(技术恐惧者) could therefore test their theories by making financial trades. If they were successful, it would add credibility to their prophecies well in advance of the disaster that would ultimately vindicate them.(如果交易成功，就能在最终证明他们正确的灾难到来之前，大大提升其预言的公信力。) This call for intellectual accountability is understandable. Alex Tabarrok, one of Mr Cowen’s colleagues, once called such a bet “a tax on bullshit(对胡扯征税)”. But when it comes to the dangers of advanced AI, the bets can be hard to place.
经济学家泰勒·考恩希望那些危言耸听者能“用钱投票”。许多人认为灾难发生的概率很高。如果他们是对的，那么末日的征兆应该在灾难真正降临之前就开始影响市场。因此，技术恐惧者可以通过金融交易来检验自己的理论。如果交易成功，就能在最终证明他们正确的灾难到来之前，大大提升其预言的公信力。这种对知识诚信的呼吁可以理解。考恩的同事亚历克斯·塔巴罗克曾把这种赌注称为“对胡扯征税”。但说到先进AI的危险，这种赌注可能很难下。