
TO MANY PEOPLE Vietnam’s promotion in July to “upper middle-income” status by the World Bank vindicated(证明……正确) almost 40 years of doi moi(越南“革新开放”政策) or “renovation,” the country’s period of economic opening. To Lam, the chairman of Vietnam’s Communist Party, is not satisfied: “If we continue with old methods, we may achieve temporary growth,” he warned in May, “but it will be difficult to create sustainable growth …or escape the middle-income trap.”(他在5月警告说:“如果我们继续沿用旧方法,或许能实现暂时增长,但很难创造可持续增长……也难以摆脱中等收入陷阱。”)
对许多人来说,世界银行7月将越南提升为“中高收入”国家,证明了该国近40年的“革新开放”(doi moi)——即经济开放时期——是正确的。但越南共产党中央总书记苏林并不满足。他在5月警告说:“如果我们继续沿用旧方法,或许能实现暂时增长,但很难创造可持续增长……也难以摆脱中等收入陷阱。”
Wages for Vietnamese workers are rising, which threatens to squeeze(挤压) already narrow margins in the manufacturing sector. So before its workforce is priced out(因价格过高而被挤出), Vietnam’s government hopes to leap up the value chain(向价值链上游攀升). It intends to manufacture high-tech products like semiconductors(半导体), which it currently merely assembles(组装) with comparatively little value added(附加值). But chipmaking takes lots of energy. And Vietnam, which has only recently conquered chronic(长期的、慢性的) blackouts, needs reforms to match its ambition. Luckily, it has a plan. Vietnam aims to bring liquefied natural gas, or LNG, into the power mix(电力结构). Imported gas can provide an efficient, steady stream of power and is ideal for energy-intensive(能源密集型的) industrial parks. By 2030, Vietnam hopes to generate about 10% of its electricity from the stuff.
越南工人的工资正在上涨,这有可能挤压制造业本已微薄的利润。因此,在劳动力成本变得过高之前,越南政府希望向价值链上游攀升。它打算生产半导体等高科技产品,而目前它只是进行组装,附加值相对较低。但芯片制造需要大量能源。而越南最近才克服了长期停电问题,需要进行改革才能匹配其雄心。幸运的是,它有一个计划。越南打算将液化天然气(LNG)纳入电力结构。进口天然气可以提供高效、稳定的电力,非常适合能源密集型工业园区。到2030年,越南希望约10%的电力来自天然气。
But it won’t meet that goal. VinGroup, the country’s largest conglomerate(企业集团), ended a $6.7bn LNG power-plant project in March, citing(引用、以……为由) high costs. The construction of new LNG power plants is stalling(停滞、拖延) across the country, and the handful that are moving forward(少数正在推进的项目) are mostly run by state-owned enterprises(国有企业), including Vietnam Electricity (EVN). So far, LNG contributes only about 1.6% of Vietnam’s electricity.
但它无法实现这一目标。该国最大的企业集团Vingroup于3月终止了一个价值67亿美元的LNG发电厂项目,理由是成本过高。全国各地新建LNG发电厂的建设陷入停滞,少数正在推进的项目大多由国有企业运营,包括越南电力集团(EVN)。迄今为止,LNG仅占越南电力的约1.6%。