In recent weeks concern has exploded over artificial superintelligence(超级智能) as a result of surprising and alarming behaviour by AI agents. The fears are centred on the futuristic story about an “AI singularity”: artificial intelligence will eventually cross a threshold(跨过门槛) where it improves itself at an exponentially(以指数方式) increasing pace and leaves humans behind as the curve goes vertical. But there is another singularity that should be receiving more attention. It is more tangible(有形的、可感知的), already under way(正在进行中) and likely to have big geopolitical implications sooner. This is the “physical singularity”.
最近几周，人工智能代理出人意料且令人警觉的表现，让人工超级智能引发的担忧急剧升温。这些恐惧围绕着一个颇具未来色彩的叙事——"人工智能奇点"：人工智能终将跨过某个门槛，从此以指数级速度自我改进，随着曲线陡然垂直上升，把人类甩在身后。但还有另一个奇点更值得我们关注。它更具体可感，已经悄然展开，而且很可能更早产生重大的地缘政治影响。这就是"物理奇点"。
Humans already rely on machines to do many manual tasks. They are force multipliers on human labour, allowing us to physically modify our world at a greater rate than we could with only our own hands.(它们是人力效能的倍增器，让我们改造物理世界的速度远超仅凭双手所能达到的水平。) As our machines become more capable, the fraction of human effort needed will continue to fall towards zero. Warehouses increasingly operate with minimal human intervention(干预、介入). Much mining equipment is autonomous(自主的、自动运行的). Construction sites employ robotic systems. Individually, though, these are incremental(渐进的、逐步的) improvements.
人类早已依赖机器完成许多体力劳动。机器是人力效能的倍增器，让我们改造物理世界的速度远超仅凭双手所能达到的水平。随着机器能力不断增强，所需人力所占的比例将持续趋近于零。仓库的运转越来越依赖极少的人工干预，许多采矿设备已实现自主作业，建筑工地也用上了机器人系统。不过，单看每一项，这些都只是渐进式的改进。
There will, however, be a critical threshold that is reached before human effort falls to zero. It will come after design, logistics, manufacturing and deployment are integrated into a system that automates the growth of productive capacity, and does so with a decreasing reliance on human labour.(当设计、物流、制造与部署被整合进一个能自动推动产能增长、且对人力的依赖不断下降的系统时，这个临界点就会到来。) Beyond machines doing resource extraction, transporting and building, imagine robots building the factories where they then go and build more robots.(除了让机器进行资源开采、运输和建造，不妨再想象一下：机器人建造工厂，然后走进这些工厂去制造更多机器人。) They will not only be transforming the physical world. At an exponentially increasing rate, they will expand the system that transforms it. At some point in the next decade or two, human labour will no longer be a major constraint(制约因素、限制) on how quickly industrial capacity grows. That will transform the economics of growth(增长的经济学).
然而，在人力投入降至零之前，会先出现一个关键临界点。当设计、物流、制造与部署被整合进一个系统，而这个系统又能自动推动产能增长、且对人力的依赖不断下降时，这个临界点就会到来。除了让机器进行资源开采、运输和建造，不妨再想象一下：机器人建造工厂，然后走进这些工厂去制造更多机器人。它们不仅是在改造物理世界，还会以指数级加快的速度，扩张那个改造世界的系统本身。在未来一二十年的某个时刻，人力将不再是制约工业产能增长速度的主要因素。这将彻底改变增长的经济学。