
FRANCE’S MESSY politics are spook(使恐慌,惊吓)ing the bond markets. On September 29th the yield(收益率) on ten-year bonds rose to 4.8%, its highest level since 2008. The surge in borrowing costs pushed the spread between French ten-year bonds and German Bunds(法德国债利差) up by 50 basis point(基点(万分之一))s in September, to 128 points—the highest level for 14 years. France now pays more to borrow than Greece and Italy, once the euro zone’s most worrisome members.(法国如今的借贷成本已高于希腊和意大利——这两个国家曾是欧元区最令人担忧的成员。) It is increasingly looking like the currency area(货币区(此处指欧元区))’s biggest problem, and things could get worse.
法国混乱的政局正在令债券市场感到恐慌。9月29日,十年期国债收益率升至4.8%,为2008年以来最高水平。借贷成本飙升推动法国十年期国债与德国国债的利差在9月扩大50个基点,达到128个基点,为14年来最高。如今法国借钱的成本已高于希腊和意大利——这两个国家曾是欧元区最令人担忧的成员。法国越来越像是这个货币联盟最大的问题,而且情况可能还会恶化。
France has no difficulty issuing sovereign debt(主权债务). But the steep(急剧的,陡峭的) rise in yields reflects two particular worries. The first is that France’s minority government(少数派政府) may struggle to control the deficit in the budget for 2027, which was unveiled on October 1st. The second is that the prospect of fiscal consolidation is becoming ever more remote, with a presidential election next spring that may be won by a populist who would govern still more irresponsibly.(第二,财政整顿的前景正变得越来越渺茫,因为明年春季的总统大选可能由一位民粹主义者胜出,而他会以更加不负责任的方式执政。)
法国发行主权债务并无困难。但收益率的急剧上升反映出两大担忧。第一,法国的少数派政府可能难以控制10月1日公布的2027年预算中的赤字。第二,财政整顿的前景正变得越来越渺茫,因为明年春季的总统大选可能由一位民粹主义者胜出,而他会以更加不负责任的方式执政。

In his budget Sébastien Lecornu, the centrist(中间派的) prime minister, promised €54bn ($61bn) of savings. These will come from such measures as a freeze on higher-rate pensions(冻结高额养老金). He is extending for a third year a surcharge(附加税,额外费用) on big companies (initially presented as a one-off(一次性的事物)), albeit(尽管,虽然) at a reduced rate. Almost all departments face a squeeze(面临压缩/压力). Only spending on defence has been ring-fenced(被保护起来的,专款专用的).
中间派总理塞巴斯蒂安·勒科尔尼在预算中承诺节省540亿欧元(610亿美元)。这些节省将来自冻结高额养老金等措施。他将对大公司征收的附加税延长至第三年(最初宣称是一次性的),尽管税率有所降低。几乎所有部门都面临压缩。只有国防开支被保护起来。