
THE YIELD on ten-year US Treasuries(美国国债) has charged through the 5% barrier. The spread(利差) between French government bonds and German Bunds is at levels not seen since the euro-zone crisis(欧元区主权债务危机) in 2012. Britain’s newish prime minister has this week set out a plan for spending bolstered by a taboo-busting(打破禁忌的) promise to curb state-pension increases—and yet is still in a fiscal pickle(陷入财政困境). Across the rich world, countries are struggling to coax(设法获取;哄劝) more growth out of their economies. And that’s not the worst of it. As we explain this week, the tax base in all countries, which depends heavily on taxing labour, may be upended by artificial intelligence.(正如本周我们所阐释的,所有国家的税基都严重依赖对劳动征税,而这一税基可能被人工智能彻底颠覆。)
十年期美国国债收益率已冲破5%大关。法国国债与德国国债的利差达到2012年欧元区危机以来的最高水平。英国上任不久的首相本周公布了一份支出计划,还打破禁忌、承诺抑制国家养老金的增长——即便如此,英国财政仍深陷困境。在整个发达世界,各国都在苦苦挣扎,试图从经济中榨取更多增长。而这还不是最糟糕的。正如本周我们所阐释的,所有国家的税基都严重依赖对劳动征税,而这一税基可能被人工智能彻底颠覆。
Add these problems together, and it is as if a mighty hurricane were about to hit the rich world’s tax systems—which are hopelessly unprepared. The way the state raises money is wasteful, unfair and perverse(有悖常理的;扭曲的). You would have thought governments would be scrambling to strengthen the system before the hurricane makes landfall, but as ever they are running away from tax reform instead.(你本以为各国政府会争先恐后地在飓风登陆前加固税制,但一如既往,它们反而在逃避税制改革。)
把这些问题叠加起来,就仿佛一场强飓风即将袭击发达世界的税制——而这些税制毫无准备。国家筹集资金的方式既浪费、又不公平,还扭曲激励。你本以为各国政府会争先恐后地在飓风登陆前加固税制,但一如既往,它们反而在逃避税制改革。
The accumulated flaws of modern tax systems are so ubiquitous(无处不在的) that they have become part of the economic backdrop(经济背景). Taxes are full of needless complexity. In Germany the rate of value-added tax (VAT) on oat milk is more than double that on cow’s milk, for example. Such widespread special treatment has ruinous(灾难性的;毁灭性的) fiscal consequences. Across the OECD, a club of mostly rich countries, consumption taxes raise only 58% of what they could if there were no carve-outs and no evasion.(在经合组织这个以富国为主的俱乐部中,消费税实际征收到的税额,仅相当于没有特殊豁免、没有逃税情况下可征收税额的58%。)
现代税制积累的缺陷无处不在,以至于已成为经济背景的一部分。税收充斥着不必要的复杂性。例如在德国,燕麦奶的增值税税率是牛奶的两倍多。这种普遍存在的特殊待遇带来了灾难性的财政后果。在经合组织这个以富国为主的俱乐部中,消费税实际征收到的税额,仅相当于没有特殊豁免、没有逃税情况下可征收税额的58%。