“The motivation behind this redraw(重新划区) is simple and singular(唯一的): draw a new map that will bring an additional Republican seat to the North Carolina congressional delegation(代表团),” Ralph Hise, a state senator, told fellow legislators in October 2025. If Democrats were to win control of the House of Representatives in this year’s midterm elections, he warned, they would “torpedo President Trump’s agenda”.(他警告说，如果民主党在今年中期选举中赢得众议院控制权，他们将“摧毁特朗普总统的议程”。)
“这次重新划区的动机简单而唯一：绘制一张新地图，为北卡罗来纳州国会代表团增加一个共和党席位，”州参议员拉尔夫·海斯在2025年10月对同僚们说。他警告说，如果民主党在今年中期选举中赢得众议院控制权，他们将“摧毁特朗普总统的议程”。
Republican lawmakers in six other states did the same, creating maps that favoured their party. Democrats in California responded in kind(以同样方式) and a court struck down a previous Republican gerrymander(杰利蝾螈（不公正划区）) in Utah. On the face of it, Republicans won the redistricting war: our average forecast, based on a probabilistic(概率的) model, is that the new boundaries will give the party a net gain(净增) of 6.5 seats relative to the old maps. The upshot is that Democrats now need to win the national popular vote for the House by four percentage points, instead of two (see chart 1), to take control of the chamber.(结果是，民主党现在需要在全国众议院普选中领先四个百分点，而非两个百分点（见图1），才能控制众议院。)
另外六个州的共和党议员也如法炮制，绘制了有利于本党的地图。加利福尼亚州的民主党人针锋相对，犹他州一家法院则推翻了此前共和党的一项杰利蝾螈。表面上看，共和党赢得了这场选区重划之战：我们基于概率模型的平均预测是，新边界将让共和党相比旧地图净增6.5个席位。结果是，民主党现在需要在全国众议院普选中领先四个百分点，而非两个百分点（见图1），才能控制众议院。
Our forecast estimates that Democrats will win by around nine points—easily offset(抵消)ting the effect of redistricting. But the combination of new maps and the president’s unpopularity has had unexpected consequences, too, expanding the electoral battlefield, shifting the focus towards different sets of voters and changing the nature of the Democratic majority that we expect in the House.(但新地图与总统不受欢迎这两者叠加，也带来了意想不到的后果：扩大了选举战场，将焦点转向不同的选民群体，并改变了我们预期的民主党在众议院多数席位的性质。)
我们的预测估计，民主党将领先约九个百分点——轻松抵消了选区重划的影响。但新地图与总统不受欢迎这两者叠加，也带来了意想不到的后果：扩大了选举战场，将焦点转向不同的选民群体，并改变了我们预期的民主党在众议院多数席位的性质。
Red Dem Redemption
红色民主党的救赎
