WHAT SKILLS does your child need on the cusp of(在……的边缘/即将迎来) an industrial revolution? That was the question Robert Campbell unwittingly(无意地，不知不觉地) sought to answer for parents in 18th-century London. His manual, published in 1747, contained useful advice on choosing an apprenticeship(学徒期，学徒身份) and the rather harder-to-follow injunction(训诫，指令；禁令) to “improve the genius, temper and disposition(性情，禀性；倾向) of their children”. Drawing could transform a mere cabinet-maker into a master craftsman; a prospective mercer(绸缎商，布商) (the luxury-fashion buyers of their day) should “by no means(绝不，一点也不) be an awkward clumsy fellow”. There were even tips on how to avoid “the many temptations to which youth are liable(易于……的；有法律责任的) in this great City”: female artisans could make a good living if they didn’t succumb(屈服，抵挡不住) to gin.
在工业革命即将来临之际，你的孩子需要什么技能？这正是罗伯特·坎贝尔在18世纪伦敦无意中试图为父母们回答的问题。他于1747年出版的手册，就如何选择学徒期提供了有用的建议，还有一条更难遵循的训诫：“改善孩子的天赋、性情和禀性”。绘画能把一个普通的橱柜匠变成大师级工匠；一个未来的绸缎商（那个时代的奢侈时装买手）“绝不能是个笨手笨脚的家伙”。书中甚至还有如何避免“年轻人在这座大城市里容易遭遇的诸多诱惑”的提示：女性手艺人只要不沉溺于杜松子酒，就能过上不错的生活。
Parents today need not contend with(应对，与……斗争) the gin craze of the 1740s. But a bigger threat to their children’s future, many worry, is artificial intelligence, which could revolutionise the world of work much faster than the steam engine did.(但许多人担心，孩子未来面临的更大威胁是人工智能，它给职场带来的变革可能比蒸汽机快得多。)
今天的父母不必再应对18世纪40年代的杜松子酒狂潮。但许多人担心，孩子未来面临的更大威胁是人工智能，它给职场带来的变革可能比蒸汽机快得多。
No one knows exactly how it might do so, and much doom-mongering(散布悲观论调) has been premature(为时过早的，过早的) at best(充其量，往好里说). Take the prediction in 2016 by Geoffrey Hinton, a British AI pioneer, that the technology would replace radiographers within five years.(以英国AI先驱杰弗里·辛顿2016年的预测为例，他认为该技术将在五年内取代放射技师。) Instead it has raised demand for them. Other bets have failed, too. “It wasn’t that long ago that people were saying, ‘we’ve got to train everyone in prompt engineering(提示工程),’” says Euan Blair, who runs Multiverse, a training firm. “That now seems pretty pointless.”
没有人确切知道它会如何实现这一点，而许多悲观论调充其量只是为时过早。以英国AI先驱杰弗里·辛顿2016年的预测为例，他认为该技术将在五年内取代放射技师。结果恰恰相反，它反而增加了对放射技师的需求。其他押注也失败了。“不久前人们还在说，‘我们得让每个人都接受提示工程培训，’”经营培训公司Multiverse的尤安·布莱尔说，“现在看来这相当没有意义。”