IN AMERICA THE left and the right agree on little. But from the deepest-blue city to the reddest-of-red hamlet(从最蓝的城市到最红的村庄), almost everyone agrees that America suffered a “China shock” in the 2000s. Joe Biden’s top economic adviser said that surging(激增的) Chinese imports had destroyed “nearly 1m” manufacturing jobs. Scott Bessent, Donald Trump’s treasury secretary, said last year that it was 3.7m American jobs. The economic research on which such claims are (in Mr Bessent’s case loosely) based is hugely influential. Yet it is controversial, too—and the argument about what exactly trade with China did to America’s economy is now hotting up(升温、白热化) once again.
在美国，左派和右派几乎没有什么共识。但从最蓝的城市到最红的村庄，几乎所有人都同意：美国在2000年代经历了一场“中国冲击”。乔·拜登的首席经济顾问曾说，中国进口激增摧毁了“近100万”个制造业岗位。唐纳德·特朗普的财政部长斯科特·贝森特去年则表示，这一数字是370万个美国岗位。这些说法所依据的经济研究（在贝森特那里只是粗略地依据）影响力巨大。但它也备受争议——而关于对华贸易究竟对美国经济做了什么，这场争论如今再次升温。
The seminal(奠基性的) paper was published in 2013 by David Autor, David Dorn and Gordon Hanson, a trio of academic economists. It examined what happened around China’s accession(加入) to the World Trade Organisation (WTO) in 2001. Chinese imports flooded into(涌入) America; manufacturing jobs fell. But was it China that made the difference? To work this out, the authors estimated the exposure of local areas to the shock based on the rise in industry-specific imports from China in other rich countries.(为了弄清这一点，作者根据其他富裕国家从中国进口的特定行业产品的增长，来估算美国局部地区受冲击的程度。) So a place with many toymaking jobs, for example, was treated as vulnerable(易受伤害的) if imports of Chinese toys were surging in the rich world as a whole.
这篇奠基性论文由大卫·奥特尔、大卫·多恩和戈登·汉森三位学术经济学家于2013年发表。论文考察了2001年中国加入世界贸易组织（WTO）前后发生的情况。中国进口涌入美国，制造业岗位减少。但真的是中国造成了这种差异吗？为了弄清这一点，作者根据其他富裕国家从中国进口的特定行业产品的增长，来估算美国局部地区受冲击的程度。例如，如果一个地方有很多玩具制造岗位，而整个富裕世界从中国进口的玩具都在激增，那么这个地方就被视为易受冲击。
Their estimates implied that exposure to Chinese goods accounted for(占（比例）；解释) about a quarter of the fall in manufacturing employment from 1990 to 2007. Besides shut factories, affected areas were found to have lower wages, higher overall joblessness(失业) and more benefit claimants(领取者). Early drafts of the paper, circulated in 2011, came close to saying the overall costs of trade with China exceeded the benefits.(2011年流传的论文早期草稿几乎是在说，对华贸易的总体成本超过了收益。)
他们的估算意味着，从1990年到2007年，制造业就业下降中约有四分之一可归因于中国商品的冲击。研究发现，受影响地区除了工厂关闭之外，工资更低、总体失业率更高、领取福利的人也更多。2011年流传的论文早期草稿几乎是在说，对华贸易的总体成本超过了收益。
Pallet cleanser
托盘清洁剂