At the first anniversary of his inauguration(就职典礼) two years ago this week, 81% of Indonesians told pollster(民调机构)s that they approved of Prabowo Subianto, a former general who is their eighth president. Now only 45% do. Many Western leaders would kill for that number, but in Indonesia’s deferential culture it marks the steepest fall in support for a president since the return of democracy in 1998.(许多西方领导人会不惜一切代价换取这个数字，但在印尼崇尚恭敬的文化中，这标志着自1998年民主回归以来总统支持率的最大跌幅。) How has it all gone so wrong?
两年前的本周，普拉博沃·苏比安托宣誓就职。在就职一周年之际，81%的印尼人告诉民调机构，他们认可这位前将军、印尼第八任总统。如今，这一比例仅剩45%。许多西方领导人会不惜一切代价换取这样的数字，但在印尼崇尚恭敬的文化中，这标志着自1998年民主回归以来总统支持率的最大跌幅。一切怎么会错得如此离谱？
First, investor confidence has collapsed. The Indonesian stock market has plunge(暴跌)d by 40% so far this year, making it the world’s worst-performing. On October 16th MSCI, a financial-analytics company, threatened to dump(降级；抛售) Indonesia into its lowest grade of market, along with such shrapnel-scarred(饱受战火摧残的) places as Lebanon and Ukraine. Mr Prabowo’s government, it says, has not done enough to end pump-and-dump(拉高出货) schemes and insider trading(内幕交易). The currency is at its weakest for two decades. Flows of foreign direct investment (FDI), which soared under Mr Prabowo’s predecessor, Joko Widodo (known as Jokowi), as he courted Chinese miners, have been disappointing.(外国直接投资（FDI）在普拉博沃的前任佐科·维多多（人称佐科威）任内因招揽中国矿企而飙升，如今却令人失望。) FDI ought to be roaring, as it is in nearby Vietnam and Malaysia, on the back of(借助；得益于) the AI boom and strong global trade. But Mr Prabowo’s erratic(反复无常的) rule is making Indonesia a tricky place to do business.
首先，投资者信心已经崩溃。印尼股市今年迄今暴跌40%，成为全球表现最差的市场。10月16日，金融分析公司MSCI威胁将印尼降入最低等级市场，与黎巴嫩、乌克兰等饱受战火摧残的地方为伍。该公司表示，普拉博沃政府在终结“拉高出货”骗局和内幕交易方面做得不够。印尼货币跌至二十年来最低点。外国直接投资（FDI）在普拉博沃的前任佐科·维多多（人称佐科威）任内因招揽中国矿企而飙升，如今却令人失望。在人工智能热潮和强劲全球贸易的推动下，FDI本应像邻国越南和马来西亚那样猛增。但普拉博沃反复无常的统治正让印尼成为一个难做生意的地方。
Second, Mr Prabowo has done little to cure underlying economic maladies. A broken labour market has become worse on his watch(在他任内), with falling middle-class real wages, a huge black market and high levels of graduate unemployment. A growth target of 8%, always ambitious(雄心勃勃的), is far out of reach(遥不可及). Mr Prabowo’s main initiative(举措)s have proved wasteful (a $13bn-a-year free-school-meals programme) or complicated and unnecessary (plans for 80,000 state-run village co-operative(合作社)s). Such gimmicks used to be popular; recent polling shows that voters, having sampled them, are no longer so impressed.(这类噱头过去颇受欢迎；但近期民调显示，选民在亲身体验后已不再那么买账。)
其次，普拉博沃在根治深层经济弊病方面几乎无所作为。在他任内，本已破损的劳动力市场进一步恶化：中产阶级实际工资下降，黑市规模庞大，毕业生失业率高企。8%的增长目标一向雄心勃勃，如今却遥不可及。普拉博沃的主要举措要么被证明浪费钱财（每年130亿美元的免费学校餐计划），要么复杂且不必要（计划设立8万个国营乡村合作社）。这类噱头过去颇受欢迎；但近期民调显示，选民在亲身体验后已不再那么买账。