
THE PRESIDENTIAL run-off(决选,第二轮投票) on October 25th is shaping up to be(正逐渐成为) the tightest since Brazil returned to democracy in 1985. The election pits Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the 80-year-old left-wing incumbent(现任者,在职者), against Flávio Bolsonaro, the 45-year-old son of Jair, a former president. No candidate who lost the first round has ever gone on to win the second. But though Lula, as the incumbent is known, trailed Flávio in the first vote on October 4th (Lula got 45%; his rival 47%), he is refusing to go down without a fight.(尽管卢拉在10月4日的首轮投票中落后于弗拉维奥(卢拉得票45%,对手47%),但他拒绝不战而降。) Can he pull off an upset(爆冷获胜,上演逆袭)?
10月25日的总统决选,正逐渐成为巴西自1985年恢复民主以来最胶着的一场选举。这场对决由80岁的左翼现任总统路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦,对阵45岁的弗拉维奥·博索纳罗——前总统雅伊尔·博索纳罗之子。历史上,从未有候选人在首轮落败后还能在第二轮翻盘。尽管卢拉(现任总统的惯称)在10月4日的首轮投票中落后于弗拉维奥(卢拉得票45%,对手47%),但他拒绝不战而降。他能否上演一场逆袭?
Since his loss in the first round, Lula has taken dramatic action. Once a technophobe(技术恐惧者) who declined even to use a mobile phone, he has lately begun posting selfie-videos on Instagram. He has come out in support of(公开表示支持) lowering the age of criminal responsibility for serious crimes, a policy that was previously anathema(令人厌恶之事,被诅咒之物) to the left. And he has pushed Congress to pass a wildly popular measure that will reduce the work week from 44 hours to 40 hours without pay cuts.(他还推动国会通过了一项极受欢迎的措施:将每周工作时间从44小时缩短至40小时,且不削减工资。) His campaign has rallied(召集,集结) hundreds of thousands of supporters in marches across big cities, replete with(充满,充斥着) celebrity performances.
首轮失利后,卢拉采取了戏剧性的行动。他曾是个连手机都不愿用的技术恐惧者,最近却开始在Instagram上发布自拍视频。他公开支持降低严重犯罪的刑事责任年龄——这一政策过去为左翼所深恶痛绝。他还推动国会通过了一项极受欢迎的措施:将每周工作时间从44小时缩短至40小时,且不削减工资。他的竞选活动在各大城市召集了数十万支持者游行,还伴有明星表演。
He is also making big spending pledges(承诺,保证). He has promised to forgive federal tax debts racked up(累积,积欠) by sole traders(个体经营者) such as barbers, manicurists or plumbers, and to hand out $1,000 to 1m of them. He has pledged to make public transport free at weekends. This comes on top of(加之,在……之上) a recent increase in the government’s flagship(旗舰的,王牌) cash transfer to poor families, the abolition(废除,取消) of income taxes for lower-middle-class Brazilians and a decision to outlaw(取缔,宣布非法) gambling firms (who were paying lots in tax). These new measures all combined could cost the government a total of $58bn by the end of 2027 (over 2% of GDP), according to the Independent Fiscal Institution, a research outfit linked to Brazil’s Senate.(据与巴西参议院有联系的研究机构“独立财政机构”估算,这些新措施加在一起,到2027年底可能使政府总共支出580亿美元(超过GDP的2%)。)
他还在做出大笔支出承诺。他承诺免除理发师、美甲师、水管工等个体经营者累积的联邦税收债务,并向其中100万人每人发放1000美元。他承诺周末公共交通免费。此外,政府近期还提高了面向贫困家庭的旗舰现金补助,取消了中下层巴西人的所得税,并决定取缔赌博公司(这些公司此前缴纳了大量税款)。据与巴西参议院有联系的研究机构“独立财政机构”估算,这些新措施加在一起,到2027年底可能使政府总共支出580亿美元(超过GDP的2%)。
