REPUBLICANS IN AMERICA’S biggest red state don’t usually have to play defence(打防守战). But less than two weeks before election day, they are panicking. Ken Paxton, the scandal-plagued(丑闻缠身的) Senate candidate, is trailing(落后于) James Talarico in the polls. Since early September, national Republicans have poured about $200m into ads in a bid to(为了，试图) save his campaign—and their Senate majority. Greg Abbott, Texas’s three-term governor, has won past elections by double digits, but this year is being forced to fend off(抵挡，击退) a Democratic challenger, Gina Hinojosa, outspending her six-to-one(以六比一的支出优势超过她) over the summer. “We’re worried about Texas,” Donald Trump admitted early this month.
在美国最大的深红州，共和党人通常不必打防守战。但距离选举日不到两周，他们却慌了神。深陷丑闻的参议员候选人肯·帕克斯顿在民调中落后于詹姆斯·塔拉里科。自9月初以来，全国共和党人已投入约2亿美元投放广告，试图挽救他的选情——以及他们的参议院多数地位。得克萨斯州三届州长格雷格·阿博特过去都以两位数优势赢得选举，但今年却被迫迎战民主党挑战者吉娜·伊诺霍萨，整个夏天她的竞选支出是他的六倍。唐纳德·特朗普本月早些时候承认：“我们担心得克萨斯。”
Mr Paxton is a uniquely bad candidate, dogged(被……纠缠的) by investigations and marital infidelity(不忠，婚外情). But he is not Republicans’ only problem in Texas. Latinos in South Texas, who swung(转向，倒向) to Mr Trump in 2024, now appear to be drifting left(向左漂移，逐渐左倾); soccer moms(足球妈妈（美国郊区中产女性选民）) in the suburbs of Dallas and Houston are tired of the president’s rancour(怨恨，敌意). After more than two decades of unbroken rule, Texas Republicans are struggling to find a winning message—old campaign lines aren’t working and the party is trying to whip up the base(煽动基本盘) by questioning if foreigners belong. Even if the party hangs on to power(保住权力) in Texas on November 3rd, its grip(掌控，控制) is loosening.
帕克斯顿先生是一个糟糕得独一无二的候选人，被调查和婚外情缠身。但他并非得州共和党人唯一的问题。2024年倒向特朗普的南得州拉丁裔，如今似乎正在向左漂移；达拉斯和休斯敦郊区的“足球妈妈”们厌倦了总统的怨愤。在二十多年不间断的统治之后，得州共和党人正艰难地寻找一个能赢的信息——旧的竞选口号失灵了，党正试图通过质疑外国人是否属于这里来煽动基本盘。即便该党在11月3日保住了得州的权力，其掌控力也在松动。
Like Republican candidates elsewhere, those in Texas are being dragged down(被拖累，被拉低) by Mr Trump. The president’s statewide approval rating(支持率) is -18, according to The Economist’s tracker. Mr Paxton told donors in September that Mr Trump’s midterm convention in Dallas sank(使下沉，拉低) his numbers, according to a leaked recording. Mr Abbott was conspicuously(显眼地，引人注目地) absent from a Trump rally in San Antonio on October 7th.
与别处的共和党候选人一样，得州的共和党候选人正被特朗普拖累。根据《经济学人》的追踪数据，总统在该州的支持率为负18。据一份泄露的录音，帕克斯顿9月曾告诉捐助者，特朗普在达拉斯举行的中期选举大会拉低了他的民调数字。10月7日特朗普在圣安东尼奥的集会上，阿博特明显缺席。