When Andy Burnham entered office in July, the football-mad(痴迷足球的) prime minister promised to go on the attack(发起进攻). His government would oversee “the biggest changes in the last 40 years”. Britons fed up with(对……感到厌倦) the status quo(现状) would “start to believe again”. That ambition calls for(需要，要求) a striker at the Treasury, a game-changing(改变局面的) chancellor. Unfortunately John Healey’s first budget, on October 28th, was all defence(全是防御性的). It dealt with the immediate worries: modest tax rises shored up(支撑，加固) the public finances, and even more modest handouts(补贴，施舍物) eased the cost of living. But the budget left the big problems, whether on reforming Britain’s broken tax system or finding the money for its spending ambitions, untouched.
安迪·伯纳姆于7月上任时，这位痴迷足球的首相承诺要发起进攻。他的政府将主导“过去40年来最大的变革”。厌倦了现状的英国人将“重新开始相信”。这样的雄心需要一位财政部的前锋、一位能改变局面的财政大臣。不幸的是，约翰·希利在10月28日公布的首份预算案完全是防御性的。它处理了眼前的担忧：小幅增税支撑了公共财政，更小幅的补贴缓解了生活成本。但这份预算案对重大问题——无论是改革英国支离破碎的税制，还是为其支出雄心找到资金——都未触及。
To be fair(平心而论), Mr Healey was playing on a boggy pitch(在泥泞的球场上踢球). The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), a fiscal watchdog, cut its 2027 growth forecast from 1.6% to 1%, blaming the energy crisis caused by war in the Middle East.(财政监督机构预算责任办公室将2027年增长预测从1.6%下调至1%，归咎于中东战争引发的能源危机。) The conflict pushed estimated inflation for 2027 from 2% to 3.4%. Borrowing costs will be £12bn ($16bn) a year higher on average in the medium term(中期). By 2031-32 debt-interest spending will consume(消耗，占去) 4.2% of GDP (£160bn a year), more than double(两倍多) the pre-pandemic level.
平心而论，希利是在一片泥泞的球场上踢球。财政监督机构预算责任办公室（OBR）将2027年增长预测从1.6%下调至1%，归咎于中东战争引发的能源危机。冲突使2027年通胀预期从2%升至3.4%。中期内，借贷成本平均每年将增加120亿英镑（160亿美元）。到2031-32年，债务利息支出将占GDP的4.2%（每年1600亿英镑），是疫情前水平的两倍多。
The chancellor’s game plan(策略，行动计划) was to show “fiscal discipline(财政纪律)” and give “Britain some breathing space(喘息空间) on the cost of living”. On both counts(在这两方面), Mr Healey achieved short-term success but set himself up for(为……埋下伏笔) long-term failure. The government is on track to(有望，在正轨上) meet its fiscal rules, with debt coming down and day-to-day spending covered by tax revenues by 2029-30. The deficit(赤字) is forecast to fall by half(减半), from 4.2% this year to 2.1% in 2029-30. If Mr Healey pulls this off(成功做到), he will be doing much better than the French or the Americans.
财政大臣的策略是展示“财政纪律”，并给“英国在生活成本上一些喘息空间”。在这两方面，希利取得了短期成功，却为长期失败埋下伏笔。政府有望实现财政规则，到2029-30年债务下降，日常支出由税收覆盖。赤字预计减半，从今年的4.2%降至2029-30年的2.1%。如果希利能做到这一点，他将比法国人或美国人做得好得多。
