IN 1912 FRANZ REICHELT, a tailor and inventor, ascended(登上) to the first level of the Eiffel Tower to offer a demonstration. He had designed a suit which could double as(兼作) a parachute. After mixed results(喜忧参半的结果) with mannequins, he decided it was time for a manned test—and fell to a grisly end(惨烈丧生). Today owners of credit-default swaps (CDSs), a form of insurance designed to pay out when borrowers go bust, likewise find themselves in mid-air with an untested parachute.(如今，信用违约互换（CDS）的持有者——这种保险旨在借款人破产时赔付——同样发现自己悬在半空，带着一顶未经测试的降落伞。)
1912年，裁缝兼发明家弗朗茨·赖歇尔特登上埃菲尔铁塔一层进行演示。他设计了一套可兼作降落伞的服装。在假人测试结果喜忧参半后，他决定进行载人测试——结果惨烈坠亡。如今，信用违约互换（CDS）的持有者——这种保险旨在借款人破产时赔付——同样发现自己悬在半空，带着一顶未经测试的降落伞。
CDSs can be used to hedge(对冲) exposure to debt, or to speculate(投机). But are they a good way to do either? The instruments gained notoriety(恶名) in the global financial crisis of 2007-09, then got their wings clipped(受挫) during the euro-zone debt crisis. In 2011 the Greek government’s initial restructuring(重组) of its debt failed to trigger CDS payouts. Although the contracts were eventually activated in 2012, by then many investors had lost faith. They lost more in 2014, after Portugal’s central bank split the failing Banco Espirito Santo(葡萄牙圣灵银行) in two and the International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA(国际掉期与衍生品协会)) judged its CDSs to apply to the stronger offshoot(分支). Some investors who held the old bank’s bonds faced huge losses—and Reichelt-like protection.
CDS可用于对冲债务敞口，或用于投机。但它们是做好这两件事的好方法吗？这类工具在2007-09年全球金融危机中声名狼藉，随后在欧元区债务危机中受挫。2011年，希腊政府对其债务的初步重组未能触发CDS赔付。尽管这些合约最终在2012年被激活，但那时许多投资者已经失去信心。2014年他们损失更多：葡萄牙央行将濒临倒闭的圣灵银行一分为二，而国际掉期与衍生品协会（ISDA）判定其CDS适用于较强的分支。一些持有旧银行债券的投资者面临巨额损失——以及赖歇尔特式的保护。
Despite these setbacks, the CDS is back in vogue(重新流行). Concern over France’s public debt has driven the cost of related five-year CDSs to its highest in 14 years. In America the cost of insuring against a default in the next five years by Oracle(甲骨文公司), a cloud-computing giant going all-in on(全力投入) artificial-intelligence data centres, has quadrupled(翻了两番) in the past 12 months. If the world’s mounting pile of debt comes crashing down(轰然倒塌), many CDS investors can expect a hard landing(硬着陆).
尽管遭遇这些挫折，CDS又流行起来。对法国公共债务的担忧已将相关五年期CDS的成本推至14年来的最高点。在美国，为甲骨文——一家全力投入人工智能数据中心的云计算巨头——未来五年内违约投保的成本在过去12个月里翻了两番。如果世界上堆积如山的债务轰然倒塌，许多CDS投资者可能面临硬着陆。