EIGHT MONTHS into the Iran war the oil-market riddle(谜题；难解之谜) keeps deepening. Since early September exports from the Middle East have climbed. They exceeded 17m barrels per day (b/d) in the week to October 23rd, just 4m b/d below 2025 levels, reckons Vortexa, a data firm. Yet in the same period the price of Brent futures, the international benchmark for crude, has jumped by a fifth, to $115 a barrel, nearing its April peak (see chart).(然而同期，国际原油基准布伦特期货价格却跳涨五分之一，达到每桶115美元，逼近4月峰值。)
伊朗战争进入第八个月，石油市场的谜题却愈发深奥。自9月初以来，中东出口持续攀升。数据公司Vortexa估计，截至10月23日当周，出口量突破每日1700万桶，仅比2025年水平低400万桶/日。然而同期，国际原油基准布伦特期货价格却跳涨五分之一，达到每桶115美元，逼近4月峰值（见图表）。
Three factors explain why oil is so pricey(昂贵的), starting with a change in China’s appetite for(对……的需求/欲望) crude. In March its government, worried about supplies, banned exports of refined products(成品油). Refiners drew on stocks and consumers used less fuel. The result was a near-halving(几乎减半) of crude imports between February and June, by 6m b/d. That was a big reason why the largest oil-supply shock in history did not push prices higher.(这正是史上最大石油供应冲击未能推高油价的重要原因。)
三个因素解释了油价为何如此昂贵，首先是中国对原油需求的变化。3月，中国政府因担忧供应而禁止成品油出口。炼油厂动用库存，消费者减少燃料使用。结果是2月至6月间原油进口几乎减半，减少了600万桶/日。这正是史上最大石油供应冲击未能推高油价的重要原因。
In June a detente(（紧张关系的）缓和) between Iran and America caused prices to drop. Chinese refiners lobbied to lift the export ban: with Gulf exports still blocked and Russian refineries pummel(连续猛击；重创)led by Ukraine, refiners’ margins elsewhere set records(创下纪录). From July China resumed exports and imports rebounded. In the three weeks to October 16th they were more than 3m b/d above June’s level—enough to absorb some of the jump in Middle East exports, notes Neil Crosby of FGE NexantECA, a consultancy.(咨询公司FGE NexantECA的尼尔·克罗斯比指出，截至10月16日的三周内，进口量比6月水平高出300多万桶/日——足以吸收中东出口的部分增量。)
6月，伊朗与美国关系缓和，油价应声下跌。中国炼油厂游说解除出口禁令：由于海湾出口仍受阻、俄罗斯炼油厂遭乌克兰打击，其他地区炼油利润率创下纪录。7月起中国恢复出口，进口也反弹。咨询公司FGE NexantECA的尼尔·克罗斯比指出，截至10月16日的三周内，进口量比6月水平高出300多万桶/日——足以吸收中东出口的部分增量。