Among the few areas of bipartisan consensus(两党共识) in Washington these days is the belief that securing access to(确保获取……的渠道) critical minerals(关键矿产) is vital to the national interest. In many cases Chinese miners have already established a daunting(令人望而生畏的) lead. But not in copper. That is thanks in no small part(在很大程度上) to Freeport-McMoRan(美国铜业巨头自由港麦克莫兰), an American miner that is the world’s second biggest producer of the red metal, after BHP(澳大利亚矿业巨头必和必拓), a diversified Australian giant (see chart 1).
如今华盛顿为数不多的两党共识之一，就是认为确保关键矿产的供应渠道关乎国家利益。在许多领域，中国矿企已经建立起令人望而生畏的领先优势。但在铜领域并非如此。这在很大程度上要归功于自由港麦克莫兰——这家美国矿企是全球第二大铜生产商，仅次于多元化经营的澳大利亚巨头必和必拓（见图表1）。
“Today really is Freeport’s time,” says Kathleen Quirk, chief executive of the Phoenix-based miner. Electrification and the artificial-intelligence boom will keep lifting copper demand, she argues, yet new supply is scarce and slow to develop(开发缓慢). In the past 15 months copper prices have surge(飙升)d by 40%, bringing Freeport’s share price with them (see chart 2). That, combined with new technology and greater political support, leads Ms Quirk to suggest that America may be on the cusp of a copper version of the shale revolution.(再加上新技术和更有力的政治支持，柯克女士认为美国可能正处在“铜业版页岩革命”的边缘。) People once assumed that the country would remain dependent on imported oil and gas; instead it became a major exporter. Ms Quirk reckons her industry could see something similar.
“今天确实属于自由港，”这家总部位于凤凰城的矿企首席执行官凯瑟琳·柯克说道。她认为，电气化和人工智能热潮将持续推高铜需求，而新供应却稀缺且开发缓慢。过去15个月，铜价飙升40%，自由港股价也随之上涨（见图表2）。再加上新技术和更有力的政治支持，柯克女士认为，美国可能正处在“铜业版页岩革命”的边缘。人们曾以为美国将长期依赖进口石油和天然气，结果它却成了主要出口国。柯克女士估计，她的行业也可能出现类似局面。
One day, perhaps. But the strategy now being pursue(推行、追求)d by America’s copper giant will contribute only modestly(贡献有限). Last month Freeport said it was aiming to lift its total output of the metal to 4.5bn-5bn pounds by 2030, up from a projected 3bn in 2026. Its approach is strikingly incremental(渐进式的).
也许有一天吧。但这家美国铜业巨头目前推行的战略，贡献将相当有限。上月，自由港表示，其目标是到2030年将铜总产量提升至45亿至50亿磅，高于2026年预计的30亿磅。其策略明显是渐进式的。
