Alyona’s waters broke(羊水破了) in her hometown of Kramatorsk, 10km from the front line. The city has no functioning maternity ward(产科病房), so an ambulance took her to Sloviansk, a short drive under a canopy of anti-drone netting(在反无人机网罩下). Complications then forced her to make an hours-long trip to Kharkiv, where on October 8th she gave birth to a son. That hospital had its dangers too: during air raids(空袭) mothers and newborns are rushed to a bunker(掩体，地堡). But it was safer than Kramatorsk, where on the same day a Russian bomb killed 30 people.
阿廖娜的羊水在她的家乡克拉马托尔斯克破了，那里距离前线仅10公里。该市没有正常运转的产科病房，于是救护车把她送到斯拉维扬斯克，车程不长，沿途上方架着反无人机网。随后并发症迫使她经历数小时车程前往哈尔科夫，10月8日她在那里生下了一个儿子。那家医院也有危险：空袭时母亲和新生儿会被紧急送入掩体。但那里比克拉马托尔斯克安全，同一天一枚俄罗斯炸弹在克拉马托尔斯克炸死了30人。
Alyona is one of the few(少数人之一). Births in Ukraine are falling, in part because there are fewer adults. Since Russia’s full-scale invasion(全面入侵) in 2022 the population inside government-controlled territory has fallen from about 37m to 27m-28m (see chart 1). Around 3m-5m Ukrainians now live under Russian occupation(占领), and millions more have emigrated(移居国外). Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, puts combat deaths(战斗死亡人数) at over 50,000; an independent estimate is closer to 150,000. Thousands of civilians have been killed, and Russia has deported(驱逐出境) over 20,000 children to Russify(俄罗斯化) them.
阿廖娜是少数幸运者之一。乌克兰的出生人数在下降，部分原因是成年人变少了。自2022年俄罗斯全面入侵以来，政府控制区内的人口已从约3700万降至2700万至2800万（见图表1）。目前约有300万至500万乌克兰人生活在俄罗斯占领下，还有数百万人移居国外。乌克兰总统泽连斯基称战斗死亡人数超过5万；独立估计则接近15万。数千平民被杀，俄罗斯还驱逐了超过2万名儿童，试图将他们俄罗斯化。
Wartime, moreover, is not good for starting families. The fertility rate(生育率) has dropped from 1.2 children per woman in 2020 to 0.8-0.9, lower than any big country but South Korea(除韩国外低于任何大国). The replacement rate, needed to keep the population stable, is 2.1.(维持人口稳定所需的更替水平是2.1。) In the first half of 2026 deaths outnumbered births by more than three to one(死亡人数以三比一超过出生人数).
此外，战时不利于组建家庭。生育率已从2020年的每名妇女1.2个孩子降至0.8至0.9个，除韩国以外低于任何大国。维持人口稳定所需的更替水平是2.1。2026年上半年，死亡人数超过出生人数的三倍以上。
