When Nigel Farage returned to politics, during the 2024 general election, he made a wild suggestion. “Net migration should be zero,” said the leader of the populist-right(民粹右翼的) Reform UK. Given that it had reached an all-time high of 944,000 the year before, it felt a preposterous(荒谬的，离谱的) goal.
2024年大选期间，奈杰尔·法拉奇重返政坛时提出了一个疯狂的主张。“净移民应该归零，”这位民粹右翼政党英国改革党领袖说道。鉴于前一年净移民数刚创下94.4万的历史新高，这个目标显得荒谬至极。
Barely two years on(仅仅两年后), this wild suggestion may become reality. Migration has plummeted(骤降，暴跌). When, later this month, the Office for National Statistics publishes net-immigration(净移民) figures for the 12 months to June, they may reach a three-decade low (excluding the lockdown years). The number for the calendar year of 2026 could be negative, says James Bowes of Warwick University, forecasting that 54,000 more people will leave than arrive. Britain would become a country of net emigration(净迁出) for the first time since 1993.
仅仅两年后，这个疯狂的建议可能成为现实。移民数已大幅下降。本月晚些时候，英国国家统计局将公布截至6月的12个月净移民数据，可能创下三十年来的新低（不含封锁年份）。华威大学的詹姆斯·鲍斯表示，2026日历年度的数字可能为负，他预测离开英国的人将比抵达的多出5.4万。英国将自1993年以来首次成为净迁出国。
Mr Farage was not alone in his broad goal. Every government since 2010 was elected on a pledge to(以……承诺当选) cut immigration. David Cameron, as prime minister, wanted to reduce the net figure to “tens of thousands”. So did his successor, Theresa May. Boris Johnson, the prime minister behind Britain’s immigration spike(激增，峰值), said numbers “will come down”. Rishi Sunak promised a cut. Even Sir Keir Starmer, a former Labour leader, said: “Read my lips(听好了（强调承诺）): I will bring immigration…down.” People are used to being failed by their political class.(人们早已习惯被政治阶层辜负。) What happens if they get what they want?
法拉奇并非唯一抱有这一总体目标的人。2010年以来，每届政府都以削减移民为竞选承诺。时任首相戴维·卡梅伦想把净移民数降至“数万”。其继任者特雷莎·梅亦然。制造英国移民高峰的首相鲍里斯·约翰逊表示数字“会降下来”。里希·苏纳克承诺削减。甚至前工党领袖基尔·斯塔默爵士也说：“听好了：我会把移民……降下来。”人们早已习惯被政治阶层辜负。可如果他们真的得偿所愿，又会怎样？