At the start of the summer, the outlook was sunny for SoftBank and its swashbuckling(豪放不羁的) boss, Masayoshi Son. The giant investment firm briefly toppled(推翻，超越) Toyota as Japan’s most valuable company. At the end of June the net value of its assets reached ¥72.3trn ($445bn), an increase of 80% in just three months thanks to gains in its artificial-intelligence holdings. Mr Son crowed that(得意地宣称) investors had once again underestimated SoftBank (and himself), likening his creation to a goose laying golden eggs(把他的造物比作下金蛋的鹅): “What matters is not the eggs. It is the goose itself.”
入夏之初，软银及其豪放不羁的掌门人孙正义前景一片光明。这家投资巨头一度超越丰田，成为日本市值最高的公司。截至6月底，得益于人工智能持股的增值，其资产净值达到72.3万亿日元（合4450亿美元），短短三个月增长了80%。孙正义得意地宣称，投资者又一次低估了软银（以及他本人），并将自己的造物比作一只下金蛋的鹅：“重要的不是蛋，而是鹅本身。”
The period since has not been a fertile(多产的，丰收的) one. By early August the net value of SoftBank’s assets had dropped to ¥58.3trn, as the share prices of many of its big investments tumbled(暴跌). From its peak in June, SoftBank’s market capitalisation(市值) has fallen by more than half (see chart); it now ranks only ninth in the Japanese league. Analysts had expected the firm to report a modest profit in the most recent quarter, but on November 10th the company disclosed a $7bn loss, much of it the result of write-downs linked to its American data-centre investments.(分析师原本预计该公司最近一个季度会录得小幅盈利，但11月10日公司披露了70亿美元的亏损，其中很大一部分来自其美国数据中心投资相关的减记。) Mr Son’s eggs look less golden than cracked(与其说金光闪闪，不如说裂痕斑斑).
此后的一段日子可不算多产。到8月初，随着其许多重大投资的股价暴跌，软银的资产净值已降至58.3万亿日元。自6月峰值以来，软银市值已下跌超过一半（见图表），如今在日本仅排名第九。分析师原本预计该公司最近一个季度会录得小幅盈利，但11月10日公司披露了70亿美元的亏损，其中很大一部分来自其美国数据中心投资相关的减记。孙正义的金蛋看起来与其说是金光闪闪，不如说是裂痕斑斑。
To understand what has gone wrong, consider the four elements of SoftBank’s bet on AI: semiconductors, models, robotics and infrastructure. One of SoftBank’s biggest holdings(持股，资产) is its stake of about 90% in Arm, a British company that made its name(成名，声名鹊起) creating blueprints(蓝图，设计图) for chips in smartphones and other gadgets. Now Arm is pushing into selling its own silicon for use in AI data centres. Investors are worried that royalties from its original business will slow faster than new profits can replace them.(投资者担心，其原有业务的特许权使用费下滑速度将快于新利润的填补速度。) Such concerns have sent Arm’s stock down by more than 50% since mid-June. In the same period shares in Intel, an American chipmaker and another of SoftBank’s investments, have also fallen by more than half.
要理解出了什么问题，不妨看看软银AI赌注的四大要素：半导体、大模型、机器人和基础设施。软银最大的持仓之一是其对Arm约90%的持股。Arm是一家英国公司，凭借为智能手机及其他设备芯片设计蓝图而声名鹊起。如今Arm正进军销售自家芯片，用于AI数据中心。投资者担心，其原有业务的特许权使用费下滑速度将快于新利润的填补速度。此类担忧已导致Arm股价自6月中旬以来下跌超过50%。同期，软银另一项投资——美国芯片制造商英特尔的股价也下跌超过一半。