Could the news be much more dramatic? Artificial-intelligence models keep growing more powerful, faster than almost anyone predicted. Next week Anthropic, a frontier(前沿的) model-maker, is expected to list its shares in what could be the biggest-ever IPO of an AI firm. Yet in some ways the AI boom is looking wobbly(摇摇欲坠的). A sex-and-spying scandal is rocking Nvidia(英伟达，全球顶级芯片制造商), the top chipmaker. America’s Democratic Party, having won the midterms(美国中期选举), is raring to go(跃跃欲试) after data centres and Trump-adjacent tech titans. Some fear an almighty(巨大的；全能的) tech bust is coming. How worried should the world be?
新闻还能更戏剧化吗？人工智能模型正变得越来越强大，速度之快几乎超出所有人的预料。下周，前沿模型开发商Anthropic预计将上市，这可能成为有史以来规模最大的AI公司IPO。然而在某些方面，AI热潮正显得摇摇欲坠。一场性丑闻与间谍丑闻正震动顶级芯片制造商英伟达。美国民主党在中期选举获胜后，正摩拳擦掌要对数据中心和与特朗普关系密切的科技巨头动手。一些人担心一场巨大的科技泡沫破裂即将到来。世界该有多担心？
History offers clues. Plenty of past technologies, from canals and railways to the internet, have brought market euphoria(狂热；极度兴奋) and then despair. Bets on them went wrong even though the underlying(底层的；根本的) technologies proved revolutionary.
历史提供了线索。许多过去的技术，从运河、铁路到互联网，都曾带来市场狂热，随后又陷入绝望。对它们的押注出了错，尽管这些底层技术最终被证明具有革命性。
Even techno-optimists like The Economist should worry about a crunch(危机；紧缩) today. The scale of expected investment in AI is vast, an annual average of 3.6% of America’s GDP between 2025 and 2032, by one forecast. AI-related shares have had a dizzying(令人眩晕的) run: the top ten heavily AI-exposed(受AI影响的；AI敞口大的) stocks are now nearly 40% of America’s S&P 500 index. Corporate equities have reached 38% of American household net worth(净资产)—nearly a quarter higher than at the peak of the dotcom boom(互联网泡沫). And over the 12 months to August net foreign inflows(流入量) into American equities crossed $1trn for the first time, many times greater than for the entire 2010s.
即便是像《经济学人》这样的技术乐观主义者，如今也应担忧一场危机。预计AI投资规模巨大，据一项预测，2025至2032年间年均将占美国GDP的3.6%。AI相关股票经历了一轮令人眩晕的上涨：十大高度暴露于AI的股票如今占美国标普500指数近40%。企业股票已占美国家庭净资产的38%——比互联网泡沫顶峰时还高出近四分之一。截至8月的12个月里，流入美国股市的净外国资金首次突破1万亿美元，是2010年代全期的许多倍。