“I give you my solemn(严肃的，郑重的) warning that under the present trend, the next world war is inevitable,” declared the French military leader Ferdinand Foch. It was 1921, and Foch, the commander in chief of the Allied armies during World War I, was raising alarms in a speech from New York City. His concern was simple. After defeating Germany, the Allied powers had forced it to disarm with the Treaty of Versailles(① 背景：1919年签署，正式结束一战。...). But just a couple of years later, they had stopped enforcing the terms of their victory. Berlin, Foch warned, thus could and would rebuild its military. “If the Allies continue their present indifference . . . Germany will surely rise in arms again.”
法国军事领导人费迪南德·福煦宣称：“我郑重警告你们，按目前的趋势，下一次世界大战不可避免。”那是1921年，福煦——一战中协约国军队总司令——在纽约发表演讲，敲响警钟。他的担忧很简单：在击败德国后，协约国通过《凡尔赛和约》强制其解除武装，但仅仅几年后，它们就停止执行胜利条款。福煦警告说，柏林因此能够且必定会重建其军队。“如果协约国继续当前的无动于衷……德国必将再次武装崛起。”
Foch’s comments proved prescient(有先见之明的，预知性的). By the late 1930s, Germany had indeed rebuilt its military. It seized Austria, then Czechoslovakia, and then Poland, sparking World War II. When it was again defeated, the Allies were more attentive in their management of the country. They occupied and divided it, disbanded its armed forces, and largely abolished its defense industry. When the United States and the Soviet Union allowed West Germany and East Germany, respectively, to reestablish their militaries, it was only under strict oversight(在严格监督下). When they allowed the halves to merge, Germany had to limit the size of its armed forces. Even so, British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher opposed reunification, fearing it would produce a dangerously powerful country. A bigger Germany, she warned in 1989, “would undermine the stability of the whole international situation and could endanger our security.”
福煦的言论堪称预见性。到1930年代末，德国确实重建了军队，吞并了奥地利、捷克斯洛伐克和波兰，引发了第二次世界大战。当它再次战败后，同盟国更加审慎地管理这个国家：占领并分裂它，解散其武装力量，基本废除其国防工业。后来，美国和苏联分别允许西德和东德重建军队，但必须置于严格监督之下。允许两德统一时，德国被限制军队规模。即便如此，英国首相玛格丽特·撒切尔仍反对统一，担心会催生一个危险强大的国家。她于1989年警告说：“一个更大的德国将破坏整个国际局势的稳定，并可能危及我们的安全。”
Today, Foch’s and Thatcher’s fears seem to belong to ancient history. As Europe has navigated(成功应对（困难局面）) one crisis after another in recent decades—most important, Russia’s aggression against Ukraine—the continent’s officials have worried not that Berlin might become too strong but that it is far too weak(过于虚弱). “I fear German power less than German inaction,” declared Radoslaw Sikorski, Poland’s foreign minister, in 2011, during Europe’s financial crisis. It was a remarkable statement coming from a Polish official, given that Warsaw has traditionally been one of the governments most worried about German power. He is hardly alone: Germany’s military must “spend more and produce more,” declared NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte in 2024.
如今，福煦和撒切尔的担忧似乎已成为古老的历史。随着欧洲在近几十年里应对一次又一次危机——最重要的是俄罗斯对乌克兰的侵略——欧洲官员们担心的不是柏林变得太强，而是它太弱了。“我恐惧德国的不作为甚于德国的权力，”波兰外长拉多斯拉夫·西科尔斯基在2011年欧洲金融危机期间如此宣称。这句话出自波兰官员之口尤为引人注目，因为华沙传统上是最担心德国权力的政府之一。他并非孤例：北约秘书长马克·吕特在2024年宣称，德国军队必须“增加开支并提高产量”。
TOO MUCH AND NOT ENOUGH
过多与不足
MIGHT MAKES FRIGHT
强权生惧
THE RETURN OF REVANCHISM
复仇主义卷土重来
GOLDEN HANDCUFFS
金色手铐
