For the last four years, policymakers in Washington and European capitals have been consumed(被占据精力/全神贯注) by a single question: how to respond to Russia’s full-scale invasion(全面入侵) of Ukraine. Their focus is understandable. Russia’s attack on its neighbor is the greatest threat to European security since U.S. and Soviet tanks stood off in Berlin over 60 years earlier.(俄罗斯对其邻国的攻击是自60多年前美苏坦克在柏林对峙以来欧洲安全面临的最大威胁。) As a result, NATO allies have sent Ukraine hundreds of billions of dollars in military, economic, and humanitarian assistance to prevent it from losing the war and collapsing. The Europeans have received waves of refugees and, together with the Americans, enacted tough sanctions against Russia. Facing pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump, leaders across the alliance have held a series of summits to try to end the fighting.
过去四年来，华盛顿和欧洲各国首都的政策制定者一直专注于一个问题：如何应对俄罗斯对乌克兰的全面入侵。他们的关注可以理解。俄罗斯对其邻国的攻击是自60多年前美苏坦克在柏林对峙以来欧洲安全面临的最大威胁。因此，北约盟国向乌克兰提供了数千亿美元的军事、经济和人道主义援助，以防止其战败和崩溃。欧洲国家接收了数波难民，并与美国一起对俄罗斯实施了严厉制裁。面对美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的压力，联盟各地领导人举行了一系列峰会，试图结束战斗。
But the resolution of the conflict, whatever its contours(轮廓，大致形状), will not put an end to(结束，终止) the forces it has unleashed(释放，引发). Indeed, a cease-fire could mark the start of an even more dangerous era. Once the guns fall silent, Russia and Ukraine will still be locked in a tense confrontation.(枪声一旦平息，俄罗斯和乌克兰仍将陷入紧张的对抗。) Moscow will rearm and likely increase its destabilizing activities across the continent. Europe will keep spending more on defense, disavowing the integration it once pursued with Russia and adopting a more hawkish posture. The United States might try to disentangle itself from the standoff, but its economic and political stakes in Europe will make a full withdrawal impossible. There will, in short, be little communication and much suspicion between NATO and Russia.
但冲突的解决，无论其轮廓如何，都不会终结它所释放的力量。事实上，停火可能标志着一个更危险时代的开始。枪声一旦平息，俄罗斯和乌克兰仍将陷入紧张的对抗。莫斯科将重整军备，并可能增加其在欧洲各地的破坏性活动。欧洲将继续增加国防开支，放弃曾经与俄罗斯追求的一体化，采取更加强硬的姿态。美国可能试图摆脱对峙，但其在欧洲的经济和政治利益使得全面撤军不可能。简而言之，北约与俄罗斯之间将几乎没有沟通，只有大量猜疑。
This is hardly a recipe for(产生……的配方/因素) a new long peace. Quite the opposite: the risk of a direct conflict between Russia and Western states will remain unacceptably high. With prolonged distrust, ongoing military buildups, minimal communication, a gutted security architecture, and continued Kremlin provocations, there will be no shortage of scenarios in which a small spark could lead to a continental conflagration.(由于长期的不信任、持续的军事集结、极少的沟通、被掏空的安全架构以及克里姆林宫的持续挑衅，将会有大量情景，其中一个小火花就可能引发整个大陆的战火。) The odds of war could grow especially high if the transatlantic alliance frays(磨损，紧张关系恶化) or even collapses.
这几乎不是一场新长久和平的良方。恰恰相反：俄罗斯与西方国家之间直接冲突的风险将仍然高得令人无法接受。由于长期的不信任、持续的军事集结、极少的沟通、被掏空的安全架构以及克里姆林宫的持续挑衅，将会有大量情景，其中一个小火花就可能引发整个大陆的战火。如果跨大西洋联盟出现裂痕甚至崩溃，战争的可能性尤其会变得非常高。
POINT OF NO RETURN
不可逆转的转折点
ON THE BRINK
濒临边缘
DENIAL BY DETERRENCE
通过威慑来否定
BREAK THE ICE
打破坚冰
TALK IT OUT
通过对话解决