The dawning(开始出现的，黎明般的) age of artificial intelligence holds great promise for the world economy and for the United States. Like so many other countries, the United States has endured(忍受，承受) decades of slow growth in labor productivity(劳动生产率). Productivity, the amount of goods and services produced per worker, is the single most important(最重要的单一因素) measure of a country’s overall economic success. Slow productivity growth has meant poor growth in average incomes, which in turn has fueled much of the political turmoil(动荡，混乱) manifested(显现，表现) across the globe in the last generation. In the United States, slow growth in productivity has contributed to escalating political polarization(不断升级的政治两极分化) and what many see as the gradual death of the American dream(美国梦).
人工智能的曙光为世界经济和美国带来了巨大希望。与许多其他国家一样，美国几十年来一直忍受着劳动生产率增长缓慢的困境。生产率——每个工人生产的商品和服务数量——是衡量一国整体经济成功最重要的单一指标。生产率增长缓慢意味着平均收入增长乏力，这反过来又加剧了过去一代人全球范围内出现的政治动荡。在美国，生产率增长缓慢导致政治两极分化不断升级，以及许多人眼中美国梦的逐渐消亡。
The United States needs to conjure up(激起，唤起) a productivity renaissance(复兴，新生). And AI seems to be a perfect catalyst. In 2024, U.S. productivity in the nonfarm business sector(非农商业部门) grew by three percent, the fastest increase in a nonrecession, nonpandemic year in decades. A McKinsey study published in 2025 estimated that by 2030, AI-powered agents and robots(人工智能驱动的智能体与机器人) could generate somewhere between(大约在……之间) $2.9 trillion and $6.4 trillion in new annual economic value for the United States—a productivity gain equal to nine to 20 percent of the country’s 2025 gross domestic product(国内生产总值)—and $28.7 trillion for the world overall.
美国需要激发一场生产力复兴，而人工智能似乎是一个完美的催化剂。2024年，美国非农商业部门的生产率增长了3%，是几十年来非衰退、非大流行年份中最快的一次。麦肯锡2025年发布的一项研究估计，到2030年，人工智能驱动的智能体与机器人每年可为美国带来2.9万亿至6.4万亿美元的新经济价值——相当于美国2025年国内生产总值的9%至20%——并为全球带来28.7万亿美元。
AI is poised to(准备好，即将) power this kind of renaissance because it drives both capital investment and innovation, the two ways that countries can reliably increase their productivity. The United States and a growing number of other countries are witnessing a surge(激增，汹涌) in capital investment in AI infrastructure, including computer chips, data centers, and electrical systems. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, AI-related investment accounted for about 39 percent of total U.S. GDP growth in 2025. That number is set to go up(将上升) in 2026. According to the <em>Financial Times</em>, the four largest U.S. “hyperscalers(超大规模云服务商)” in AI and cloud computing—Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft—plan to increase their collective capital spending(集体资本支出) on AI in 2026 to $725 billion, a 77 percent increase from the roughly $410 billion they collectively spent last year.
人工智能有望推动这场复兴，因为它驱动着资本投资和创新——这是国家可靠提高生产率的两种途径。美国以及越来越多的其他国家正在见证人工智能基础设施投资激增，包括计算机芯片、数据中心和电力系统。根据圣路易斯联邦储备银行的数据，2025年人工智能相关投资约占美国GDP总增长的39%。这个数字在2026年还将上升。据《金融时报》报道，美国人工智能和云计算领域的四大“超大规模企业”——Alphabet、亚马逊、Meta和微软——计划将2026年人工智能集体资本支出增至7250亿美元，比它们去年约4100亿美元的总支出增长77%。
DEGREES OF DIFFICULTY
困难程度
THE YOUNG AND THE RESTLESS
年轻与躁动
UNLEARN HOW TO CODE
忘掉编码
