In many ways, the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran and the war in Gaza that preceded it seem transformative(变革性的). After decades of shadow warfare(影子战争), Iran and Israel have now attacked each other’s homelands directly. And Israel and the United States have joined forces in a genuinely novel way to wage war against Iran. The Islamic Republic has lost its supreme leader(最高领袖) of 36 years and much of its defense infrastructure(基础设施). The Gulf states, once largely able to stay out of harm’s way, have seen their energy facilities, airports, and hotels go up in flames(化为灰烬). Hezbollah has dragged Lebanon, which was just starting to recover from its last war, back into conflict.(真主党将黎巴嫩拖回冲突，而黎巴嫩刚开始从上次战争中恢复。) The Assad regime, which had ruled Syria for nearly half a century, was swept away(被扫除) when its partners in Beirut and Tehran were battered and unable to offer any help. Israel, for its part(就……而言), has flattened(夷平) Gaza, tiptoed(小心翼翼地) toward annexing(吞并) the West Bank, reoccupied(重新占领) parts of southern Lebanon, and extended(扩展) its control of Syrian territory beyond the Golan Heights.
从许多方面来看，美国与以色列对伊朗的战争以及此前发生的加沙战争似乎都具有变革性。经过数十年的影子战争，伊朗和以色列如今已直接攻击彼此的国土。以色列和美国以一种真正新颖的方式联手对伊朗开战。伊斯兰共和国失去了其执政36年的最高领袖，并损失了大量国防基础设施。曾经基本能够置身事外的海湾国家，其能源设施、机场和酒店如今却陷入火海。真主党将黎巴嫩拖回冲突之中，而该国刚刚开始从上一场战争中恢复。阿萨德政权统治叙利亚近半个世纪，当其贝鲁特和德黑兰的伙伴遭到重创、无力提供任何帮助时，该政权被扫除。就以色列而言，它已夷平加沙，试探性地走向吞并约旦河西岸，重新占领黎巴嫩南部部分地区，并将其对叙利亚领土的控制扩展到戈兰高地之外。
All these changes are real and important, and they have caused millions of people to suffer. Yet overall, the Middle East emerging out of this upheaval(剧变) looks a lot like the one that existed before it. Outsiders continue to play their balance-of-power(权力平衡) games within the borders of weak Arab states, the Iranian-Israeli conflict endures(持续), the Palestinian question remains unresolved(未解决的), and the United States lacks the capacity or the will to impose order but is still too involved in the region to leave.
所有这些变化都是真实而重要的，它们已导致数百万人受苦。然而总体而言，从这场剧变中走出来的中东，看起来与之前存在的中东非常相似。外部势力继续在弱小的阿拉伯国家边界内玩着权力平衡的游戏，伊朗与以色列的冲突持续，巴勒斯坦问题仍未解决，美国既缺乏能力也缺乏意愿来强加秩序，但又与该地区牵扯过深而无法离开。
The cease-fire(停火协议) signed by Iran and the United States in June 2026 captures(体现) the Trump administration’s failure to fundamentally alter the region. After suffering a series of blows between 2023 and 2025, Tehran has affirmed its power by exercising a chokehold(扼制) over the Strait of Hormuz and assaulting its Gulf neighbors. The prewar regime in Tehran is largely intact(完好无损) and is now dominated(主导) by members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, who are just as committed as(与……一样坚定) their predecessors to opposing Israel and meddling(干涉) in weak Arab states. The U.S.-Israeli war that began in February 2026 was meant to sap(削弱) Iran’s power, if not to eliminate its regime. Instead, it has given the Islamic Republic a new lease on life(新的生机).
伊朗与美国于2026年6月签署的停火协议，凸显了特朗普政府未能从根本上改变该地区。在2023年至2025年间遭受一系列打击后，德黑兰通过扼制霍尔木兹海峡并袭击其海湾邻国来彰显实力。德黑兰的战前政权基本完好，如今由伊斯兰革命卫队成员主导，他们与其前任一样致力于反对以色列并干涉弱小的阿拉伯国家。始于2026年2月的美国-以色列战争旨在削弱伊朗的力量，即使不能消灭其政权。相反，它给了伊斯兰共和国新的生机。
STILL GOT IT
依然有实力
SHEIKH DOWN
酋长倒下
LOVE THY NEIGHBOR
爱邻如己
THE MORE THINGS CHANGE
万变不离其宗