
Is the strait of Hormuz, recently cited by the office of the Iranian supreme leader as “the pillar of Iran’s new security order”, and as transformative as possessing a nuclear weapon, in reality becoming a fast-diminishing asset, leaving Iran increasingly vulnerable to the new planned US wave of economic sanctions?(霍尔木兹海峡是否正迅速贬值,使伊朗面对美国新制裁时愈发脆弱?)
霍尔木兹海峡——伊朗最高领袖办公室最近称其为“伊朗新安全秩序的支柱”,并认为其具有与拥有核武器同等的变革性意义——是否实际上正迅速贬值,使伊朗面对美国计划中的新一轮经济制裁时愈发脆弱?
It is the key debate that is raging inside(在……内部激烈进行) Iran, with many different conclusions being drawn for Tehran’s negotiating strategy. Those who warn the strait’s value as a chokehold on the world economy will erode, leaving the country without foreign exchange reserves, argue that Iran’s negotiators should seek a deal soon.(警告海峡价值将削弱的人认为伊朗应尽快达成协议。)
这正是伊朗国内激烈辩论的核心议题,各方为德黑兰的谈判策略得出了许多不同结论。那些警告称海峡作为扼制世界经济的要道的价值将会削弱、使国家失去外汇储备的人认为,伊朗的谈判代表应尽快寻求达成协议。
One analysis written by Hamid Paktinat, the founder of the Forum of Economic Activists, suggests the construction of alternative(替代的;备选的) pipelines and export routes by Iran’s Gulf neighbours will halve(使减半) the strait’s strategic value within three years.
经济活跃人士论坛创始人哈米德·帕克蒂纳特撰写的一份分析报告指出,伊朗的海湾邻国修建替代管道和出口路线,将在三年内使海峡的战略价值减半。