Despite the bright start to Andy Burnham’s premiership(首相任期), and Reform UK’s sudden disarray(混乱，无秩序), a shadow still hangs over British centre-left politics. Labour has a small poll lead, a cautious air of confidence and a leader who seems energised rather than overwhelmed by trying to solve the country’s problems. Meanwhile, Reform is having a terrible 2026: mired(陷入（泥潭）) in deepening funding scandals, losing winnable byelection(补选)s and, thanks to(由于，多亏) the drama and novelty of Burnham’s leadership coup(政变；突然行动) and new government, no longer the freshest story around.
尽管安迪·伯纳姆的首相任期开局良好，改革党也突然陷入混乱，但英国中左翼政治仍笼罩在阴影之中。工党在民调中略有领先，带着谨慎的信心，其领导人在解决国家问题时似乎精力充沛而非不堪重负。与此同时，改革党在2026年处境糟糕：深陷不断升级的资助丑闻，输掉本可获胜的补选，而且由于伯纳姆的领导权更迭和新政府带来的戏剧性与新鲜感，改革党已不再是当下最新鲜的话题。
Yet Reform UK’s support has either held up(保持稳定，没有下降) or fallen only slightly in most polls since Burnham entered Downing Street. Even in the Makerfield byelection, where he beat it more decisively(决定性地，果断地) than expected, Reform’s vote share and total support actually rose. Nigel Farage may have spent the year uncharacteristically(一反常态地) avoiding journalists, or in his prickly(易怒的，敏感的) rather than jolly public mode, but the overwhelming majority of Reform supporters, almost a quarter of the electorate(全体选民), remain faithful. “Power is within our grasp(唾手可得，在掌握之中)!” insisted Zia Yusuf, Reform’s home affairs spokesman, at its party conference in Birmingham on Friday, and they applauded with determined gusto(热情，兴致).
然而，自伯纳姆入主唐宁街以来，改革党的支持率在大多数民调中要么保持稳定，要么仅略有下降。即使在梅克菲尔德补选中，尽管伯纳姆以超出预期的优势击败了改革党，但改革党的得票率和总支持率实际上反而上升了。奈杰尔·法拉奇今年可能一反常态地回避记者，或者处于他那种暴躁而非愉快的公开状态，但改革党的绝大多数支持者——几乎占选民的近四分之一——仍然忠诚。“权力唾手可得！”改革党内政事务发言人齐亚·优素福周五在伯明翰举行的党代会上坚称，与会者以坚定的热情鼓掌。
Meanwhile, their preoccupations(关注点，当务之急) continue to shape politics and how the media processes it. Immigration, crime, the benefits system, “wokeness(觉醒文化)”, net zero policies: all are constantly presented as out of control(失控) and contributing to national decline. From our overcrowded prisons to our almost exhausted(枯竭的，耗尽的) North Sea oil- and gasfields, what are widely considered to be the most politically realistic options for the government are generally what most Reform voters would like to happen. The likelihood that permanent crime crackdowns and further large-scale fossil-fuel drilling – which the government looks increasingly likely to approve – will be disastrous for a country with an ever more obvious climate crisis and unprecedentedly large prison population, by historical and European standards, does not disturb this deep-rooted rightwing consensus.(永久性打击犯罪和扩大化石燃料开采可能带来灾难，但这种可能性并未动摇右翼共识。) The pressure on Burnham to go along with it as prime minister will be never-ending.
与此同时，他们（改革党支持者）所关注的问题继续塑造着政治以及媒体对政治的报道方式。移民、犯罪、福利制度、“觉醒文化”、净零政策：所有这些都被不断描绘成失控状态，并导致国家衰落。从拥挤不堪的监狱到几乎枯竭的北海油气田，那些被广泛认为对政府而言最具政治现实性的选项，大体上正是大多数改革党选民所希望发生的。永久性打击犯罪和进一步大规模开采化石燃料——政府看起来越来越可能批准这些举措——对于一个气候危机日益明显、监狱人口按历史和欧洲标准衡量都空前庞大的国家来说将是灾难性的，但这种可能性并未动摇这一根深蒂固的右翼共识。伯纳姆作为首相所面临的随波逐流的压力将永无止境。