What is Donald Trump playing at(搞什么名堂，在做什么)? If it’s true that the best way of understanding the behaviour of an organisation is to assume it’s controlled by a secret cabal(秘密小集团，阴谋集团) of its enemies, perhaps that same logic extends to the current conduct of the president of the United States. Maybe he secretly wants Republicans to lose the looming(逼近的，即将来临的) midterm elections that will decide the balance of power in the US for the next two years and for which the first postal ballots(邮寄选票) were sent out today.
唐纳德·特朗普到底在玩什么把戏？如果说理解一个组织行为的最佳方式是假设它被其敌人的秘密集团所控制，那么同样的逻辑或许也适用于美国总统目前的行为。也许他暗地里希望共和党输掉即将到来的中期选举——这场选举将决定美国未来两年的权力平衡，而首批邮寄选票已于今天寄出。
That’s not as mad a theory as it sounds(像听起来那么疯狂的理论). Indeed, there are at least two reasons why Trump might either be unbothered by Republican defeat in November or even covertly(暗中地，秘密地) desire it. We’ll come to those, but let’s start with a pattern of behaviour that is hard to explain as anything other than calculated self-sabotage(蓄意的自我破坏).
这个理论听起来疯狂，但并非如此。事实上，至少有两点理由表明，特朗普可能对共和党在11月的失败无动于衷，甚至暗中希望如此。我们稍后会谈到这些，但先来看看一种行为模式，这种行为模式很难解释为别的，只能说是蓄意的自我破坏。
At the centre of it is the single act that is already defining Trump’s second term: his reckless, failed war of choice(选择性战争，主动发起的战争) against Iran. No matter how many times he declares mission accomplished(任务完成（布什名言）) or claims to have destroyed the Iranian military or to have reopened the strait of Hormuz, the facts keep telling a different story. In the past week, the two sides shifted from an economic standoff back to a shooting war, with the US firing on Iranian targets that included a wedding party, killing four, and Tehran striking out all over the neighbourhood, hitting Iraq, Kuwait, Jordan and Bahrain.(过去一周，双方从经济对峙重回热战，美国袭击伊朗目标（包括婚礼）致四人死亡，德黑兰则打击周边多国。)
这一切的核心是那一个已经定义了特朗普第二任期的行为：他对伊朗发动的鲁莽而失败的“选择性战争”。无论他多少次宣布“任务完成”，或声称已摧毁伊朗军队，或已重新开放霍尔木兹海峡，事实却不断讲述着另一个故事。过去一周，双方从经济对峙重新转向热战，美国向伊朗目标开火，其中包括一场婚礼，造成四人死亡；而德黑兰则在整个地区发动打击，袭击了伊拉克、科威特、约旦和巴林。