
At this point, it should be clear that AI is a choose-your-own-adventure(一种互动式冒险书籍,读者选择情节走向) book where every option ends in disaster. Exploding carbon emissions and ecological collapse? Turn to page 37. Other outcomes include some or all of: the bubble bursting and an ensuing financial crisis; mass unemployment via automation; the end of democracy and the rise of authoritarian surveillance states; raving cults who believe the pattern-matching algorithm is a consciousness; terrorists who create devastating bioweapons; nation states that deploy autonomous weapons systems that act on non-human timeframes; nation states or terrorists that hack all the myriad systems we depend on; or an AI that, conscious or not, pursues directives that are at odds with human wellbeing.(其他结局包括以下部分或全部:泡沫破裂并引发金融危机;自动化导致大规模失业;民主终结和威权监控国家的崛起;狂热的邪教相信模式匹配算法是一种意识;恐怖分子制造毁灭性的生物武器;国家部署在非人类时间尺度上行动的自主武器系统;国家或恐怖分子入侵我们所依赖的无数系统;或者一个人工智能,无论是否有意识,都追求与人类福祉相悖的指令。)
在这一点上,应该已经很清楚:人工智能就像一本“选择你自己的冒险”的书,每个选项都以灾难告终。碳排放爆炸和生态崩溃?翻到第37页。其他结局包括以下部分或全部:泡沫破裂并引发金融危机;自动化导致大规模失业;民主终结和威权监控国家的崛起;狂热的邪教相信模式匹配算法是一种意识;恐怖分子制造毁灭性的生物武器;国家部署在非人类时间尺度上行动的自主武器系统;国家或恐怖分子入侵我们所依赖的无数系统;或者一个人工智能,无论是否有意识,都追求与人类福祉相悖的指令。
Imagining that people such as Elon Musk, the OpenAI boss, Sam Altman, Palantir’s Peter Thiel and the Trump administration tech adviser Marc Andreessen will lead us to a utopian future of flourishing environmentalism, social harmony and endless leisure requires hallucination and sycophancy so great that that choose-your-own-adventure scenario could only have been written by ChatGPT.(想象马斯克等人会带领我们走向乌托邦未来,这需要极大的幻觉和阿谀奉承,以至于那种情景只可能由ChatGPT写出来。)
想象埃隆·马斯克、OpenAI老板萨姆·奥尔特曼、Palantir的彼得·蒂尔以及特朗普政府科技顾问马克·安德森等人将带领我们走向一个环境主义繁荣、社会和谐、无尽休闲的乌托邦未来,这需要极大的幻觉和阿谀奉承,以至于那个“选择你自己的冒险”的情景只可能由ChatGPT写出来。
There is a growing, if wildly delayed, realisation that we are heading for calamity(灾难,祸患), with accompanying calls to slow down, regulate or even put all of this on pause while we wrap our minds around(理解,弄明白) it. These calls are coming not only from activists, but from a collection of politicians, experts and big-tech insiders too ecumenical(广泛的,具有普遍性的) to dismiss, from Bernie Sanders to Bill Gates, who wrote recently that “if someone had a credible plan for slowing down AI advances globally, I would likely support it”. He is merely the latest insider to acknowledge the reality that AI company Anthropic did earlier this summer, when it called for a “brake pedal”.(他不过是承认这一现实的最新内部人士,而AI公司Anthropic今年夏初也承认了这一点,当时它呼吁安装一个“刹车踏板”。) Industry self-restraint will not work. A pause, if there is to be one, must be imposed from the outside.
人们越来越认识到我们正走向灾难,尽管这种认识严重滞后,随之而来的是要求放慢、监管甚至暂停这一切的呼声,以便我们能够理解这一切。这些呼声不仅来自活动人士,也来自一群政治家、专家和大型科技公司内部人士,其范围之广令人无法忽视,从伯尼·桑德斯到比尔·盖茨,后者最近写道:“如果有人有一个可信的全球减缓AI发展的计划,我可能会支持。”他不过是最新一位承认这一现实的内部人士,而AI公司Anthropic今年夏初也承认了这一点,当时它呼吁安装一个“刹车踏板”。行业的自我约束不会奏效。如果要暂停,必须从外部强加。