France, as the French travel writer Sylvain Tesson once noted, “is a paradise inhabited by people who think they live in hell”. As the campaign for next year’s presidential election hits its stride(渐入佳境，进入状态) with ever more wannabes(想成名的人，觊觎者) declaring their candidacies, the country is in a particularly sullen(阴郁的，闷闷不乐的) mood.
正如法国旅行作家西尔万·泰松曾经指出的，法国“是一个天堂，住在里面的人却以为自己活在地狱”。随着明年总统大选的竞选活动渐入高潮，越来越多的觊觎者宣布参选，整个国家笼罩在一种格外阴郁的情绪之中。
If the vote were held now, the anti-immigration populist Marine Le Pen would have a strong chance of romping into(轻松获胜，高歌猛进) the Élysée palace(法国总统府爱丽舍宫), riding a wave of voter disillusionment(幻灭，失望) with the entire political class and a sense that “we’ve tried everything else”. But a lot can happen between now and 18 April 2027, the date of the first round(首轮投票). France is also a country of sudden shocks.
如果现在就投票，反移民的民粹主义者玛丽娜·勒庞很有可能一路高歌冲进爱丽舍宫，她乘着选民对整个政治阶层失望的浪潮，也乘着一种“别的办法我们都试过了”的心态。但从现在到2027年4月18日首轮投票那天，什么都可能发生。法国也是一个会突然发生剧变的国家。
In spring 2011, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, the then head of the IMF and an admired former finance minister, was hot favourite(大热门，最被看好的人) to become the Socialist party candidate who would beat the incumbent(现任的，在职者) conservative Nicolas Sarkozy in the 2012 race. But Strauss-Kahn was felled(被击倒，被打倒) by a sexual harassment scandal and the unfancied(不被看好的) socialist politician François Hollande ended up in the Élysée(最终入主爱丽舍宫). In 2016, the former conservative prime minister François Fillon was well ahead in the race to succeed Hollande, then he was exposed as having arranged taxpayer-funded phoney(虚假的，伪造的) parliamentary jobs for his wife. He finished third and a young centrist(中间派的) outsider without a party machine(政党机器，党组织), Emmanuel Macron, went on to triumph.
2011年春天，时任国际货币基金组织总裁、备受尊敬的前财政部长多米尼克·斯特劳斯-卡恩，是成为社会党候选人、并在2012年大选中击败时任保守派总统尼古拉·萨科齐的热门人选。但斯特劳斯-卡恩因性骚扰丑闻而倒下，不被看好的社会党政治家弗朗索瓦·奥朗德最终入主爱丽舍宫。2016年，前保守派总理弗朗索瓦·菲永在接替奥朗德的角逐中遥遥领先，随后却被曝出为妻子安排了由纳税人出资的虚假议会职位。他最终名列第三，而一位没有政党机器支持的年轻中间派局外人埃马纽埃尔·马克龙最终胜出。