Prisons in England and Wales are full because sentences(刑期，判决) have increased, and everybody knows this. Lord chief justices(首席大法官（复数）) know this – four of them said it outright(直率地，公开地) in a report for the Howard League(霍华德联盟，英国监狱改革慈善组织) two years ago – ministers know it, and anyone who can count knows it. The prison population in England and Wales was 40,000 in 1991, 88,000 in 2024 and is estimated to hit 105,000 by 2028. Every government promises to increase capacity(容量，接纳能力); no government this century has been able to do that fast enough to cope with(应对，处理) the numbers.
英格兰和威尔士的监狱人满为患，是因为刑期增加了，这一点众所周知。首席大法官们知道——四年前他们中的四位在给霍华德联盟的一份报告中直言不讳——部长们知道，任何会算数的人都知道。英格兰和威尔士的监狱人口在1991年为4万，2024年为8.8万，预计到2028年将达到10.5万。每届政府都承诺增加容量；但本世纪没有哪届政府能足够快地做到这一点以应对这些数字。
One prisons inspector, lamenting(哀叹，痛惜) conditions that were creating unacceptably high levels of violence, said: “The bath was in danger of(处于……危险中) overflowing(溢出，泛滥), and they either had to turn the taps off(关掉水龙头（比喻停止增加囚犯）) or they had to let some water out(放掉一些水（比喻释放部分囚犯）).” But the taps have not been turned off, the bigger baths (new, often private jails) have been offset(抵消，补偿) by existing baths (old Victorian prisons) disintegrating(瓦解，崩坏), and as soon as a government found the energy and maturity to let some water out – in the form of the early release scheme – it immediately hit the wall(碰壁，遭遇障碍) of tabloid(小报，通俗小报) outrage that created this problem in the first place(起初，首先).
一位监狱监察员在哀叹监狱条件导致暴力水平高得令人无法接受时说：“浴缸有溢出的危险，他们要么关掉水龙头，要么放掉一些水。”但水龙头并没有关掉，更大的浴缸（新的、通常是私营监狱）被正在瓦解的现有浴缸（老旧的维多利亚时代监狱）所抵消，而一旦政府找到精力和成熟度来放掉一些水——以提前释放计划的形式——它立刻就撞上了最初造成这个问题的八卦报纸愤怒之墙。
The fact is that Andy Burnham can press ahead with(继续推进) the early release scheme; he can create problematic caveats(警告，附加说明); he can overturn(推翻，撤销) indeterminate sentencing(不定刑期), the measure created in 2003 whereby prisoners could spend years over their tariff(最低刑期) in prison because the onus(责任，义务) was now on them to prove they weren’t dangerous (which is quite difficult to do from prison, and more difficult still from a failing one). Or he can not do any of these things. But he won’t get a grip on the problem until he allows the possibility that sentences are too high for stupid reasons.(但除非他承认刑期过高是出于愚蠢的理由，否则他无法掌控这个问题。) The act of murder hasn’t changed in 100 years (or 1,000). There is nothing to stop a prime minister bringing sentences back down to where they were in the 90s.
事实是，安迪·伯纳姆可以推进提前释放计划；他可以设置有问题的附加条件；他可以推翻不定刑期——这项2003年出台的措施，据此囚犯可能因超过其最低刑期而在狱中多待数年，因为现在举证责任在他们身上，要证明自己没有危险性（这在监狱里很难做到，在一所糟糕的监狱里更难）。或者他也可以不做任何这些事。但除非他承认刑期过高是出于愚蠢的理由，否则他无法掌控这个问题。谋杀行为在100年（或1000年）里没有改变。没有什么能阻止首相把刑期降回到90年代的水平。