The Nobel peace prize is not a contest determined by fame. Yet the betting markets consistently gravitate(被吸引，倾向) towards the biggest names(最知名的人物) in global politics – among them this year, Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
诺贝尔和平奖不是一场由名气决定的竞赛。然而，博彩市场却总是向全球政坛最响亮的名字靠拢——今年就包括唐纳德·特朗普和弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基。
That misses what the prize is for. The real work of building peace is often done far from the headlines: by courts that uphold international law, journalists who document atrocities, and humanitarian organisations that protect communities.(真正建设和平的工作，往往远离新闻头条：由维护国际法的法庭、记录暴行的记者，以及保护社区的人道组织来完成。) With the 2026 prize due to be announced on 9 October, the Nobel committee has an opportunity to remind the world that peace is built through institutions and cooperation, not just diplomatic grandstanding(作秀，哗众取宠).
这就误解了奖项的本意。真正建设和平的工作，往往远离新闻头条：由维护国际法的法庭、记录暴行的记者，以及保护社区的人道组织来完成。2026年奖项定于10月9日揭晓，诺贝尔委员会有机会提醒世界：和平靠的是制度与合作，而不只是外交作秀。
Despite the favourable odds(赔率，可能性), Trump will not win. A sitting(现任的，在任的) president waging a war against(对……发动战争) Iran is an impossible candidate for a prize intended to advance peace. Whatever Trump’s diplomatic efforts elsewhere, the Nobel committee will consider the totality of a candidate’s contribution – a record that now includes allegations of US war crimes.(无论特朗普在其他地方有何外交努力，诺贝尔委员会都会考量候选人贡献的整体——而这份记录如今还包括对美国战争罪的指控。)
尽管赔率看好，特朗普不会获奖。一位正在对伊朗发动战争的现任总统，对于旨在推进和平的奖项来说，是不可能的人选。无论特朗普在其他地方有何外交努力，诺贝尔委员会都会考量候选人贡献的整体——而这份记录如今还包括对美国战争罪的指控。