
When the Reserve Bank of Australia lifted its cash rate(现金利率) on Tuesday, with more rate rises in the pipeline(在酝酿中,即将发生), it did so ostensibly(表面上,声称) to combat an inflation rate swollen by petrol prices and gas bills, not by avaricious(贪婪的) wage claims. Apart from a few beneficiaries, among them Pauline Hanson(澳大利亚右翼政治人物), the RBA’s move amounts to(等同于,无异于) an act of pointless aggression against the majority of Australians.
澳大利亚储备银行周二上调现金利率,并暗示还将继续加息,表面理由是对抗通胀——而推高通胀的是汽油价格和燃气账单,并非贪婪的加薪要求。除了少数受益者(其中包括宝琳·汉森),澳储行此举无异于对大多数澳大利亚人发动一场毫无意义的攻击。
An overheating economy is not the cause of the recent inflation spike(飙升,激增). Its cause is a war of choice(主动选择的战争) in the Gulf. Since US and Israeli bombs began falling on Iran, the strait of Hormuz(霍尔木兹海峡,全球石油运输要道) has turned into a toll booth(收费站), shipping insurers have tripled their premiums, and tankers have been diverted around the Horn of Africa. In Australia, a tiny minority connected to the energy oligopoly(寡头垄断) raked in(攫取,大赚) exorbitant(过高的,离谱的) profits while the vast majority felt the pain. The interest rate hike deepens the majority’s pain without delivering much gain.
经济过热并非近期通胀飙升的原因,真正的原因是海湾地区一场主动选择的战争。自美国和以色列的炸弹开始落在伊朗,霍尔木兹海峡就变成了收费站,航运保险费用涨了两倍,油轮被迫绕行非洲之角。在澳大利亚,与能源寡头有关的极少数人攫取了暴利,而绝大多数人却承受着痛苦。加息加深了多数人的痛苦,却几乎没带来什么好处。
There are two species(种类) of inflation, and central bankers have spent 40 years pretending there is only one. Demand-pull inflation occurs when households and firms spend more than the economy can produce: raise the price of money and you cool their ardour(冷却热情). Cost-push inflation is what happens when the price of an essential input is yanked(猛拉,强行推高) upward by forces that have nothing to do with domestic demand: a war closing a shipping lane, a drought, a pandemic snarling(扰乱,纠缠) supply chains. The price spiral now rattling through the Australian economy, courtesy of Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu’s war on Iran, is cost-push to its marrow.(如今在澳大利亚经济中肆虐的价格螺旋,正是特朗普和内塔尼亚胡对伊朗开战的结果,是彻头彻尾的成本推动型。)
通胀有两种,而央行行长们花了四十年假装只有一种。需求拉动型通胀发生在家庭和企业支出超过经济产出时:提高资金价格就能冷却他们的热情。成本推动型通胀则发生在关键投入品价格被与国内需求无关的力量强行推高时:战争封锁航道、干旱、疫情扰乱供应链。如今在澳大利亚经济中肆虐的价格螺旋,正是唐纳德·特朗普和本雅明·内塔尼亚胡对伊朗开战的结果,是彻头彻尾的成本推动型。