On Saturday, Houthi rebels launched a shocking and deadly attack on Saudi Arabia’s capital city, Riyadh. At the time of writing, the missile strike on King Khalid international airport has killed at least 13 people and left 300 injured, marking a significant turn in a regional conflagration that is only getting more intense.(截至本文写作时，针对哈立德国王国际机场的导弹袭击已造成至少13人死亡、300人受伤，标志着这场愈演愈烈的地区大火出现重大转折。) It was the single most deadly attack on any Gulf country since the US and Israel launched their war on Iran in February. In Saudi Arabia, a country that is unaccustomed to such fatalities, the death toll is bewilderingly(令人困惑地；高得离谱地) high and likely to prompt a bloody response(引发血腥报复).
周六，胡塞叛军对沙特阿拉伯首都利雅得发动了一场令人震惊的致命袭击。截至本文写作时，针对哈立德国王国际机场的导弹袭击已造成至少13人死亡、300人受伤，标志着这场愈演愈烈的地区大火出现重大转折。这是自今年2月美国和以色列对伊朗开战以来，海湾国家遭受的最致命的一次袭击。在沙特阿拉伯这样一个不习惯如此伤亡的国家，死亡人数高得令人错愕，很可能引发一场血腥的报复。
Over the past year, the Gulf has entered a new era of instability that is not temporary and cannot be reversed. This may feel like an overstatement – casualties have been relatively low, after all, compared with Gaza and Iran – but the gradual erosion of peace and security in places such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE has changed the region more dramatically than its leaders would like to acknowledge.(这听起来或许有些夸大——毕竟与加沙和伊朗相比，伤亡人数相对较低——但沙特阿拉伯、卡塔尔和阿联酋等地和平与安全的逐渐侵蚀，已经以远超其领导人愿意承认的程度改变了该地区。)
过去一年，海湾地区已进入一个并非暂时、且不可逆转的动荡新时代。这听起来或许有些夸大——毕竟与加沙和伊朗相比，伤亡人数相对较低——但沙特阿拉伯、卡塔尔和阿联酋等地和平与安全的逐渐侵蚀，已经以远超其领导人愿意承认的程度改变了该地区。
The first audacious(大胆的；放肆的) and unthinkable thing happened just over a year ago, when Iran fired missiles at an airbase in Qatar that hosts American troops, in retaliation for US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. Lighting up Doha’s skies and scattering shrapnel(弹片), it was a dismaying moment for the Qataris, who have tried to maintain good relations with Iran. But even then there was a degree of warning and coordination that signalled this was a face-saving measure(保全面子的做法) on the part of the Iranians. Yet later in 2025, with no similar warning or choreography(精心安排；编排), Israel struck Doha, targeting Hamas members and killing five Palestinians and one Qatari. That was the beginning of the end of a longstanding norm and expectation – that there was a sanctity to Gulf lives and sovereignty, one secured by the management of the relationship with Iran and alliances with the US.(这标志着一条长期存在的规范和期望开始终结——即海湾地区的生命和主权具有神圣性，而这种神圣性靠的是对伊关系的经营和与美国的联盟来保障。)
第一件大胆且不可想象的事发生在一多年前：伊朗向卡塔尔一处驻有美军的空军基地发射导弹，以报复美国对伊朗核设施的打击。导弹照亮了多哈的夜空，弹片四散，这对一直试图与伊朗保持良好关系的卡塔尔人来说是一个令人沮丧的时刻。但即便如此，当时仍有一定程度的预警和协调，表明这是伊朗方面保全面子的做法。然而到了2025年晚些时候，在没有任何类似预警或安排的情况下，以色列袭击了多哈，目标锁定哈马斯成员，造成五名巴勒斯坦人和一名卡塔尔人死亡。这标志着一条长期存在的规范和期望开始终结——即海湾地区的生命和主权具有神圣性，而这种神圣性靠的是对伊关系的经营和与美国的联盟来保障。