Great hopes were invested in Andy Burnham when he became prime minister in July. He went big on(大张旗鼓地强调) the failings of 40 years of neoliberalism(新自由主义), emphasised the need for Britain to start making things again and promised growth in every postcode(每个邮编区都实现增长).Back in the summer, John Healey’s first budget was seen as an opportunity to start delivering on these ambitions, but it has been clear for some time that it wouldn’t do so. The road to the New Jerusalem(新耶路撒冷，喻指理想社会) – judging by the chancellor(财政大臣)’s “breathing space(喘息空间)” package – will be a slow and arduous(艰巨的) one. Healey has taken what he inherited from Rachel Reeves and performed some minor tweaks(小幅微调). Not so much a revolution as continuity Keir Starmer(与其说是革命，不如说是斯塔默式的延续).As has been the hallmark of Burnham’s first 100 days in Downing Street, there was plenty of activity in the budget but the slew of measures – almost 100 in all – was a hotchpotch(大杂烩) and had no real semblance of(看不出任何……的样子) a strategy being fleshed out. Not many budgets linger long in the memory(长久留在记忆中) and it is unlikely that Healey’s will break with this tradition.
安迪·伯纳姆今年7月出任首相时，人们对他寄予厚望。他大张旗鼓地抨击新自由主义四十年来的种种弊端，强调英国必须重新开始制造产品，并承诺让每个邮编区都实现增长。回到夏天，约翰·希利的首份预算案曾被视为开始兑现这些抱负的契机，但早在一段时间之前就已经很清楚：它做不到。从财政大臣这份"喘息空间"方案来看，通往"新耶路撒冷"的道路将是缓慢而艰辛的。希利接过蕾切尔·里夫斯留下的框架，只做了些小修小补。与其说是革命，不如说是基尔·斯塔默式的延续。正如伯纳姆入主唐宁街头100天的典型特征，这份预算案动作不少，但那一连串措施——总共近100项——杂乱无章，看不出有任何战略正在成形的样子。没有几份预算案能长久留在人们的记忆里，希利这份恐怕也不会打破这一惯例。
In essence(本质上), it has bought Healey and Burnham some time. For the moment they can argue that the budget was just part one of a three-stage process, to be followed by the government’s 10-year-plan and next year’s spending review. They need to use that time wisely or the glitzy(光鲜亮丽的) PR will cease to impress.There are, of course, reasons why the chancellor played it safe(求稳、不冒险). Energy prices have rocketed(飙升) since the US and Israel launched their war against Iran in late February. The consequent(随之而来的) higher inflation has resulted in higher interest rates for mortgages, business loans and government borrowing.Optimism about an early resolution to the war is fast fading(迅速消退). Indeed, the prospect of an intensification(加剧、强化) of the conflict after next week’s US midterm elections has led to a fresh surge(新一轮激增) in the cost of crude oil and gas in the past couple of weeks. The modest help provided in the budget to reduce energy bills will be dwarfed by the expected price increases in January.(预算案中为降低能源账单提供的有限帮助，将被1月份预期的价格上涨远远盖过。) A tough winter lies ahead.As the dust settles(尘埃落定之后), a number of conclusions can be drawn. One is that Britain remains – as Burnham once put it – in hock to(欠……的债、受制于) the bond markets. Healey may well have wanted to come up with a more generous energy support package, but was constrained by the fear that the financial markets would cut up rough(翻脸、闹起来). Ever since Liz Truss’s mini budget(特拉斯2022年迷你预算案与债券市场风暴) in 2022, governments have lived in fear of another sell off in government bonds. Healey is like a contestant in Strictly Come Dancing(英国著名舞蹈真人秀《舞动奇迹》) – he knows that the markets always have the casting vote(决定性的那一票).To be fair to(平心而论) the chancellor, he borrowed £20bn more to invest in infrastructure spending, using the flexibility in meeting the government’s rules for the public finances provided by Reeves. That was welcome and – at first glance(乍看之下) – didn’t appear to unsettle the markets. Whether Healey’s array of minor fixes to help with cost of living pressures is enough to keep voters sweet is another matter.(至于希利那一堆旨在缓解生活成本压力的小修小补，是否足以让选民满意，则是另一回事。) The economy has so far showed impressive resilience(韧性) in the face of(面对) the energy shock caused by events in the Middle East, but that strength has been concentrated in the financial and business sectors of the economy, with growth in artificial intelligence particularly striking. Consumer-facing sectors – such as hospitality and housing – have been much weaker, with the most recent report on consumer confidence showing the sharpest monthly fall since the Brexit referendum in 2016(2016年英国脱欧公投). That’s hardly surprising given the fact that taxes as a share of national income are on course next year to be at their highest ever level, and that spending power(购买力) is being eroded by rising fuel and energy costs. In its latest report on the economy, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR)(英国预算责任办公室) estimates that living standards will fall next year and by 2030-31 will be only 2% higher than they were before the Covid pandemic. A lost decade(失去的十年) in other words.It is against this unpropitious backdrop that many pundits – particularly in the City – have seen the lack of meat in the budget not as an indication that the government is dithering, but as a sign that Burnham is preparing the ground for an early general election.(正是在这种不利的背景下，许多评论人士——尤其是伦敦金融城的——并不把预算案缺乏实质内容视为政府犹豫不决的表现，而是看作伯纳姆在为提前大选铺路的信号。) On this reading(按这种解读), all the big decisions – on social care, relations with the EU, and defence – have been parked(搁置) until the prime minister has his own mandate(授权、民意授权).The case for holding a snap poll(提前大选) is not just that voters seem to have taken to(喜欢上、对……产生好感) Burnham, although he is certainly enjoying a honeymoon period(蜜月期（政治支持率的高峰期）). It is also that Labour is currently benefiting from the lack of a single challenger on the right as the Conservatives and Reform slug it out(激烈争斗、一决高下), and from the problems facing both the Greens and the Liberal Democrats on the left. The polls show Labour in the lead.Even so, an early election would be a colossal(巨大的) risk for a party with a commanding(压倒性的、稳固的) majority and two and a half years of the current parliament still to run. The OBR thinks the economy will grow more slowly in 2027 than in 2026, while living standards will actually fall before picking up in 2028 as the energy shock abates(减弱、缓解). Next week’s anticipated rise in interest rates from the Bank of England may not be the last. The prime minister is arguably at the peak of his popularity.Burnham has repeatedly said that he has no plans to go to the country early, which if true will be a relief to the many Labour MPs who would almost certainly lose their seats, even now that the polls are looking more favourable.(伯纳姆一再表示没有提前大选的计划，如果属实，许多几乎肯定会丢掉席位的工党议员将松一口气——即便眼下民调看起来更有利。) But if that is his intention, he will need to get a move on(抓紧行动) – because now is as good as it is going to get(现在已是最好的时机).
本质上，这份预算案为希利和伯纳姆争取到了一些时间。眼下他们可以辩称，预算案只是三步走进程的第一步，接下来还有政府的十年规划和明年的支出审查。他们必须善用这段时间，否则再光鲜的公关也终将失去效果。当然，财政大臣之所以求稳是有原因的。自2月底美国和以色列对伊朗开战以来，能源价格一路飙升。随之而来的通胀走高，推高了房贷、企业贷款和政府借贷的利率。人们对战争早日结束的乐观情绪正迅速消退。事实上，下周美国中期选举之后冲突可能升级的前景，已导致过去两周原油和天然气价格再度飙升。预算案中为降低能源账单提供的有限帮助，将被1月份预期的价格上涨远远盖过。一个艰难的冬天就在眼前。尘埃落定之后，可以得出若干结论。其一，英国仍然——用伯纳姆自己的话说——欠着债券市场的债。希利很可能想推出更慷慨的能源支持方案，却因担心金融市场翻脸而受到掣肘。自2022年利兹·特拉斯的迷你预算案以来，各国政府一直生活在政府债券再度遭抛售的恐惧之中。希利就像《舞动奇迹》的参赛选手——他知道市场永远握有决定性的那一票。平心而论，财政大臣多借了200亿英镑用于基础设施投资，靠的是里夫斯为遵守政府公共财政规则所留出的灵活空间。这值得欢迎，而且乍看之下似乎并未扰乱市场。至于希利那一堆旨在缓解生活成本压力的小修小补，是否足以让选民满意，则是另一回事。面对中东局势引发的能源冲击，英国经济迄今表现出惊人的韧性，但这种强劲集中在金融和商业部门，人工智能领域的增长尤为突出。面向消费者的行业——如酒店餐饮和住房——则疲弱得多，最近一份消费者信心报告显示，月度跌幅为2016年脱欧公投以来最大。这并不奇怪，因为税收占国民收入的比重明年势将创下历史最高水平，而燃料和能源成本上涨正在侵蚀人们的购买力。预算责任办公室（OBR）在最新经济报告中估计，明年生活水平将下降，到2030-31年也仅比新冠疫情前高出2%。换句话说，这是失去的十年。正是在这种不利的背景下，许多评论人士——尤其是伦敦金融城的——并不把预算案缺乏实质内容视为政府犹豫不决的表现，而是看作伯纳姆在为提前大选铺路的信号。按这种解读，所有重大决策——社会保障、与欧盟的关系以及国防——都被搁置起来，等首相当选拿到自己的授权再说。主张提前大选的理由，不仅是选民似乎已经接纳了伯纳姆——他确实正处在蜜月期。还因为保守党与改革党在右翼缠斗，右翼缺少单一挑战者，而绿党和自由民主党在左翼又各有难题，工党正从中受益。民调显示工党领先。即便如此，对于一个拥有压倒性多数、本届议会还有两年半任期的政党来说，提前大选将是一场巨大的冒险。OBR认为2027年经济增长将慢于2026年，而生活水平实际上会先下降，待能源冲击缓解后到2028年才回升。下周英国央行预计的加息可能还不是最后一次。可以说，首相正处在人气巅峰。伯纳姆一再表示没有提前大选的计划，如果属实，许多几乎肯定会丢掉席位的工党议员将松一口气——即便眼下民调看起来更有利。但如果他确实有此打算，就得抓紧行动——因为现在已是最好的时机，往后只会更糟。
• Larry Elliott is a Guardian columnist(专栏作家)
• 拉里·埃利奥特是《卫报》专栏作家