As another Iran catastrophe looms(逼近；隐现), one question matters more than any other: how to stop it before it’s too late? Whatever the eventual outcome of Israel’s election and next week’s US midterm polls, Donald Trump, playing the Lone Ranger, and Benjamin Netanyahu, his badass Tonto, appear hell-bent on resuming the illegal war of choice they began in June last year and expanded in February.(无论以色列选举和下周美国中期选举结果如何，特朗普和内塔尼亚胡似乎都执意重启那场非法战争。) Like a Shakespearean tragedy(莎士比亚悲剧：不可逆转的毁灭性结局) moving inexorably to a bloody denouement(结局；收场), the worst is yet to come. And yet three things seem certain: the US and Israel will again fail to totally destroy Iran’s largely hypothetical(假设的；假想的) nuclear capabilities; its regime will survive; and millions of ordinary people, there and around the world, will pay the price for this unjustified, reckless aggression.
又一场伊朗灾难迫在眉睫，有一个问题比任何其他问题都更重要：如何在为时已晚之前阻止它？无论以色列选举和下周美国中期选举最终结果如何，扮演“独行侠”的唐纳德·特朗普和他那强悍的“汤托”本雅明·内塔尼亚胡，似乎都铁了心要重启他们去年6月发动、今年2月扩大的那场非法选择之战。就像莎士比亚悲剧不可阻挡地走向血腥结局，最坏的时刻尚未到来。然而有三件事似乎确定无疑：美国和以色列将再次无法彻底摧毁伊朗大体上只是假想的核能力；伊朗政权将幸存下来；而当地及世界各地数以百万计的普通人，将为这场毫无道理、鲁莽轻率的侵略付出代价。
Ducking and weaving, Trump is desperate to dodge the blame for the Republicans’ anticipated midterm meltdown(惨败；崩溃), largely triggered by war-related fuel and consumer price inflation. He claimed Ukraine’s attacks on Russian refineries were responsible, but that didn’t wash(那套说法没人信). He cut a treacherous(背信弃义的；危险的) diesel deal with Vladimir Putin but, as usual, Russia’s smirking mafioso(黑手党徒) conned him. He urged US allies to tap their strategic reserves but, unsurprisingly, vilified(诋毁；污蔑) and sidelined European leaders, who view his war as an unmitigated(彻头彻尾的；未减轻的) disaster and declined to bail him out(帮他脱困；救他). Trump also reportedly rebuffed(断然拒绝) last-gasp(最后一搏的), electorally driven pressure from Netanyahu to hit Iran this month, fearful it would unleash a Democratic tsunami(民主党海啸：选举大胜的比喻).
特朗普闪转腾挪，拼命想躲开共和党中期选举惨败的罪责——这场惨败很大程度上由战争引发的燃油和消费价格通胀所致。他声称是乌克兰袭击俄罗斯炼油厂造成的，但这套说辞没人买账。他与普京达成了一项背信弃义的柴油协议，但一如往常，俄罗斯那个得意窃笑的“黑手党徒”骗了他。他敦促美国盟友动用战略储备，却不出所料地诋毁并冷落欧洲领导人——他们视这场战争为彻头彻尾的灾难，拒绝出手救他。据称，特朗普还回绝了内塔尼亚胡本月打击伊朗的最后一搏、出于选举动机的施压，因为担心这会引发民主党海啸。
Yet once the midterm polls close, and whatever the results, all these considerations fall away(消失；烟消云散). What voters think will no longer matter to Trump. At that point, he can do more or less what he wants, in foreign and defence policy, for his final two years. And what he wants has little to do with imaginary Iranian nukes, a democratic uprising in Tehran, or any of his other bogus(虚假的；伪造的) justifications for waging war. Trump will be free to do what he does best: vendetta politics(复仇政治). Iran’s greatest sin is to have defied the imperial will(违抗帝国意志). He wanted an easy Venezuela-style, regime-altering victory (and sweetheart oil deals). What he got was a middle digit(竖中指（表示蔑视）), burnt fingers(吃亏；烫手) and a forever war. Just as he vengefully pursues opponents at home, so he now victimises Iranians.(正如他在国内报复对手一样，他现在也让伊朗人成为受害者。) It’s not rational or ideological. Like everything with Trump, ultimately it’s personal.
然而，一旦中期选举投票结束，无论结果如何，所有这些顾虑都会烟消云散。选民怎么想对特朗普来说将不再重要。到那时，在他任期的最后两年里，他在外交和国防政策上几乎可以为所欲为。而他的所欲所求，与子虚乌有的伊朗核武器、德黑兰的民主起义，或他其他任何发动战争的虚假借口，都没什么关系。特朗普将可以放手做他最擅长的事：复仇政治。伊朗最大的罪过，就是违抗了帝国的意志。他本想轻松取得一场委内瑞拉式的、更迭政权的胜利（外加优惠的石油交易）。他得到的却是一根中指、烫伤的手指和一场永无休止的战争。正如他在国内报复对手一样，他现在也让伊朗人成为受害者。这既非理性，也非意识形态。和特朗普的一切一样，归根结底是私人恩怨。