Could this be ground zero(原点；暴发中心)? Could it be the spot where the next pandemic begins? It’s certainly a candidate, not least because(尤其是因为) the chain of events that could trigger a plague far worse than Covid-19 looks like the opening sequence of a disaster movie. A really bad disaster movie, in which the levels of carelessness and turpitude(卑劣；堕落) defy belief(令人难以置信).
这里会不会是疫情暴发的原点？会不会是下一场大流行病的起点？它确实是一个候选地点，尤其是因为，可能引发一场远比新冠更严重的瘟疫的那一连串事件，看上去就像灾难电影的开场片段。而且是一部极其糟糕的灾难电影，其中的粗心大意与卑劣无耻简直令人难以置信。
A report by the investigative news service ProPublica reveals that bird flu has been raging(肆虐；猖獗) in a mink farm in Utah since August, and it appears next to nothing(几乎什么都没有) has been done by public officials. In 2023, I warned in the Guardian that mink farms could scarcely be better designed to generate lethal plagues.(2023年，我曾在《卫报》上警告说，水貂养殖场的构造简直再适合不过地会催生致命瘟疫。) This is for three reasons: mink are fed on the offcuts(下脚料；边角料) of chickens, cows and other farm animals, in which new viral variant(变种；变异株)s often develop; mink readily host both avian(鸟类的；禽的) and human flu viruses, which can then exchange genetic material, turning a bird disease into a human one; and mink possess extremely high “zoonotic(人畜共患的) potential” – the ability to infect animals of other species, including human beings.
调查新闻机构 ProPublica 的一份报告披露，自八月以来，禽流感一直在犹他州一家水貂养殖场肆虐，而公共官员似乎几乎无所作为。2023 年，我曾在《卫报》上警告说，水貂养殖场的构造简直再适合不过地会催生致命瘟疫。原因有三：水貂以鸡、牛及其他家畜的下脚料为食，而这些下脚料中常常滋生出新的病毒变种；水貂很容易同时感染禽流感病毒和人类流感病毒，两种病毒随后可以交换遗传物质，把一种禽类疾病变成人类疾病；此外，水貂具有极高的“人畜共患潜力”——即感染其他物种（包括人类）的能力。
I pointed out that bird flus that jump into the human population can be extremely dangerous: of those known to have contract(感染；染上)ed the H5N1 variant since 1997, 48% have died. The first death in the US from avian flu this year has just been announced: the victim caught it from an infected dairy herd. While it is devastating to wild bird populations and some mammals, fortunately its transmissibility(传播力；传染性) between humans is so far extremely low. If the perfect mixing vessel of a mink farm were to generate a variant that was both highly lethal and more transmissible, you would do well to get on with writing your will.(假如水貂养殖场这个完美的“混合容器”真的产生出一种既高度致命又更具传播力的变种，那你最好赶紧动手写遗嘱。) Both for this reason and because of the pointless cruelty of the fur business, I called for a global treaty to ban mink farming.
我曾指出，传染给人类的禽流感可能极其危险：自 1997 年以来，已知感染 H5N1 变种的人中，有 48% 已经死亡。今年美国首例禽流感死亡病例刚刚公布：死者是从一个受感染的奶牛群身上感染的。虽然禽流感对野生鸟类和某些哺乳动物具有毁灭性，但幸运的是，迄今为止它在人与人之间的传播力极低。假如水貂养殖场这个完美的“混合容器”真的产生出一种既高度致命又更具传播力的变种，那你最好赶紧动手写遗嘱。既出于这一原因，也出于毛皮产业毫无意义的残忍，我呼吁制定一项全球条约，禁止水貂养殖。