The stats and polling all suggest one thing: the Republicans are set for a hammering(惨败) in the midterms. Donald Trump has the lowest approval rating(支持率) of any US president going into a midterm election since Harry Truman. And it’s still dropping. The Democrats are projected(预计) to win by a margin of(以……的优势) 11 percentage points, the largest swing(摇摆幅度) by any party in almost 20 years. It is possible that the Democrats flip the Senate(翻转参议院) and secure a large majority in Congress. Those majorities would make a material difference(产生实质性影响), perhaps finally establishing oversight(监督) of the policies Trump has brought in during his second term: immigration enforcement, trade disputes, gutting(掏空、大幅削减) the federal workforce, the Iran war, to say nothing of(更不用说) his own family’s corruption. The tide seems to be turning, and one question is on everyone’s mind: is the Trump era really ending?
统计数据和民调都指向一件事：共和党将在中期选举中惨败。唐纳德·特朗普是自哈里·杜鲁门以来，进入中期选举时支持率最低的美国总统。而且支持率仍在下降。民主党预计将以11个百分点的优势获胜，这是近20年来任何政党取得的最大摇摆幅度。民主党有可能翻转参议院，并在国会获得较大多数。这些多数席位将带来实质性变化，或许最终能对特朗普第二任期推行的政策建立监督：移民执法、贸易争端、削减联邦劳动力、伊朗战争，更不用说他家族自身的腐败问题。潮流似乎正在转向，而每个人心中都有一个疑问：特朗普时代真的要结束了吗？
“Nobody wants to jinx(触霉头) it,” wrote David Wallace-Wells of the New York Times, but: “All the signs we have suggest that, historic or not, these midterms are likely to mark the end of a political era.” What that gives way to is a much more complicated picture in which the US will be delivered from Trump himself, but remains a country riven and undermined by what he has unleashed.(取而代之的将是一幅复杂得多的图景：美国将从特朗普本人手中解脱，但仍是一个被他所释放的力量撕裂和侵蚀的国家。) By the time he is gone, Trump will have been president for eight years, and a toxic(有毒的) force for more than 12. That is a long time even for a normal politician. Under one who shatters(打破) norms and forces himself into the centre of everything, Trump’s effect is as if he were president for decades.
“没人想触霉头，”《纽约时报》的大卫·华莱士-威尔斯写道，但：“我们掌握的所有迹象都表明，无论是否具有历史意义，这些中期选举很可能标志着一个政治时代的终结。”取而代之的将是一幅复杂得多的图景：美国将从特朗普本人手中解脱，但仍是一个被他所释放的力量撕裂和侵蚀的国家。到他离任时，特朗普将已担任总统八年，并作为一股有毒的力量存在超过十二年。即便对一位普通政客来说，这也是很长的时间。而在一位打破常规、强行将自己置于一切中心的总统治下，特朗普的影响就好比他已执政数十年。
He has already enacted(颁布、实施) policy that is nearly irreversible(不可逆转的), things that can only be overturned with a huge amount of work and legislative wrangling(激烈争论) and improbable bipartisan consensus(两党共识). USAID is gone. Probably also gone are government departments effectively eliminated or incapacitated(使瘫痪) by Doge, the “department of government efficiency”. There are entire global tariff regimes(关税制度) and the executive and budgetary empowerments(扩权) of ICE to deal with. And most difficult to unspool(解开、梳理) is a war with Iran that, despite its promised, imminent end, is looking to be an open-ended conflict(无休止的冲突). Even if the midterms augur a win for the Democrats in 2028, the country they will inherit will have been permanently shaped by Trump.(即便中期选举预示着民主党将在2028年获胜，他们继承的这个国家也已被特朗普永久塑造。)
他已经推行的政策几乎不可逆转，这些政策只有付出巨大努力、经过立法上的反复角力，并达成几乎不可能的两党共识，才有可能被推翻。美国国际开发署已经没了。被“政府效率部”（Doge）实际废除或瘫痪的政府部门，很可能也没了。还有整套全球关税制度，以及移民和海关执法局（ICE）在行政和预算上的扩权，都需要应对。而最难解开的是与伊朗的战争——尽管承诺即将结束，却看起来正演变成一场无休止的冲突。即便中期选举预示着民主党将在2028年获胜，他们继承的这个国家也已被特朗普永久塑造。